tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1169281096117913024.post605569963116878948..comments2024-08-02T04:21:30.430-05:00Comments on crAAKKer: Hoofbeats of Doom—Playing Zebra HandsGrange95http://www.blogger.com/profile/01857460215043659894noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1169281096117913024.post-86625294093344316112010-08-16T10:59:46.951-05:002010-08-16T10:59:46.951-05:00My most memorable hand in a low limit online game ...My most memorable hand in a low limit online game was when we had AA vs KK vs QQ vs JJ. All baby cards came through the river and the betting went from capped pre-flop to a bet and everyone calling on the river. We all had over pairs to the board but you could just see everyone asking themselves 'what do these other guys have?'. I had the KK and was not surprised to see AA, but the QQ and JJ hands were a bit shocking.Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13448033733799626126noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1169281096117913024.post-62999841391809402482010-08-15T18:16:32.746-05:002010-08-15T18:16:32.746-05:00@ --S: Since I'm watching the end of the PGA ...@ --S: Since I'm watching the end of the PGA Championship, I decided to give your odds a whirl. This is for three-handed, which is easier to calculate than a full ring game, but you can see the Alspach article above to get a sense of how a full ring game changes the computation.<br /><br />Player A's odds of getting AA: 4/52 * 3/49<br />Player B's odds of getting KK: 4/51 * 3/48<br />Player C's odds of getting QQ: 4/50 * 3/47<br /><br />So the odds of just getting the starting hands dealt is already 1 in 8,482,717! <br /><br />Next, the flop needs exactly 1 of 2 Aces, 1 of 2 Kings, and 1 of 2 Queens:<br /><br />(2*2*2) / C(46,3) = 1 in 1898<br /><br />Odds of it all coming together: <br /><br />1 in 16,095,954,875!<br /><br />Now, making the game a full ring game likely drops these odds, but it seems like it's truly a one in a billion shot. For three times in five years, clearly you also deal for PokerStars on the side. :-p<br /><br />NOTE: Just getting set over set over set is ridiculously unlikely as it is, which I've seen twice (and both times bottom set turned quads). Numbers below again are for three-handed game:<br /><br />Player A: 52/52 * 3/51<br />Player B: 48/50 * 3/49<br />Player C: 44/48 * 3/47<br /><br />So the odds of three distinct pocket pairs are 1 in 4943. The odds of the gin flop are:<br /><br />(2*2*2) / C(46,3) = 1 in 1898<br /><br />The odds of the perfect storm occurring are 1 in 9,379,927. Yes, live poker is rigged!Grange95https://www.blogger.com/profile/01857460215043659894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1169281096117913024.post-30105418953168812262010-08-15T17:33:28.147-05:002010-08-15T17:33:28.147-05:00I don't know the odds - too lazy to figure the...I don't know the odds - too lazy to figure them out - but in 5 years in the box, I've dealt AA vs KK vs QQ and put AKQ on the flop THREE times. I remember every one of them quite well ;)--Shttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14040554189573573008noreply@blogger.com