Dancing Gorillas at the Poker Table

Bonus update (23 Nov 2016):  My good friend Poker Grump wrote a great article over at Poker News on the same issue of selective attention a few weeks back. His article is better because he has a Penn & Teller magic video. So go read that article then come back here for dancing gorilla videos.

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After several stressful months at the office, not to mention a mind-boggling Presidential election, a trip to Las Vegas came at just the right moment. A few days to unplug from the world were just what the doctor ordered. Poker. Good food. Cocktails. Friends. The Vegas Rock 'N Roll Half Marathon. Well, the last one was more the excuse for Vegas than the highlight, yet there is something awesome about being mere yards from a stage where Snoop Dogg is rapping about peace, love, and weed, before running for two hours in the neon glow of the Vegas Strip at night.

As has become the norm for my Vegas trips, I made my headquarters at Aria; still the best value for upscale hotel rooms, awesome poker room, and great mid-Strip location. But there may have been a donkalicious late night drinking session of 2-6 spread limit Hold Them at Monte Carlo. Allegedly. Unquestionably there was a side trip for a session of Pot Limit Gambooool at the new Wynn poker room (actually in Encore). This is a fantastic room, with restrooms and a sports book window conveniently located in the room, lots of space between tables, top shelf drinks, and a cool, upscale vibe. And, of course, no Vegas poker trip is complete without a late night session of Poker With The Drunks at Planet Hollywood, where I cashed out for nearly a grand in profit. P-Ho remains the gold standard for lucrative late night poker.

Monday morning rolled around, and I decided to squeeze in a last three hour poker session at Aria. My legs were a little sore from the race, but I was rested, caffeinated, and sober. I should have been ready to play my A-game. Instead, I ended up looking like a total idiot.

But, for a moment, let's digress. Take a quick look at this video.



You may well have already seen this video, which was the centerpiece of an exceptional bit of psychological experimentation. The point of the experiment was to test how people observed an overall situation when they were focused on one aspect of the situation. Here, where people were focused on the task of counting the number of passes made by the people in white t-shirts, half of the observers completely missed the gorilla walking through the scene. That's right. People who were intently focused on tracking one part of the scene were utterly oblivious to another part of the scene, even something as absurd as a gorilla.

The researchers called this psychological phenomenon selective attention. Essentially, when your brain is focused on one task, it mutes or outright ignores information unrelated to the task at hand. And it can manifest itself in a wide range of daily activities. Including poker. And in a game where observation is a key skill, overlooking important information can be a costly leak.

Back to my session at Aria. I got into a game where most of the players had been at the table together since early in the morning. And it was quickly obvious why. Most of the players were over $500 deep, with several having over $1,000 stacked behind. The table economy ran through a total maniac across the table who raised preflop more than two out of three hands. His standard play was to raise preflop by splashing a random handful of chips into the pot, usually $30-$80. Then, he would c-bet nearly every flop by jamming a big stack of $80-$150 into the middle. Of course, the maniac attracted multiple callers every hand, with players looking to catch a hand and take a bite out of the maniac's stack. For his part, the maniac, as maniacs are wont to do, caught improbable hand after improbable hand to vacuum up chips from tilty nits.

So how many times did I screw up in this session? The number of the counting shall be three ....

Hand #1:  Early in the session, I had roughly my $300 starting stack and was in the small blind. Maniac raised to $20, and I called with 75 soooted along with three other players. Flop was a gorgeous 7-7-5 with two hearts. Catamaran! We checked it around on the flop. Turn was another 5. Boo! I led out for $50, and got called by the big blind. Maniac and another guy folded, but the cutoff—a fairly standard older nit—raised to $150. Damn, pretty clear he has the other 7 and we're chopping the pot. So, I shoved, expecting the big blind to fold, the nit to call, and to run out the board.

Except the big blind didn't fold. Instead, he kept looking at his cards and thinking. He cut out chips for a call, and kept looking back at his cards and the board. Eventually, he sighed and mucked. I rolled my cards and said, "I flopped it, but guess now we'll chop it."

It was only then that I realized the old nit in the cutoff hadn't snap-called! That was ... awkward. And seconds ticked by as the nit stared at my hand, the board, and his hand. Finally, he reluctantly folded. Obviously he didn't have the last 7, so he might have had something like an overpair or possibly an open-ended straight flush draw. In any event, I likely cost myself his $100 or so call.

Hand #2:  Later in the session, I was on the button with the Spanish Inquisition—6h3s. The table maniac raised to $30 and I called, along with three other players. The flop was interesting—9h5h4h—giving me an open-ended straight draw, but presenting the danger of drawing dead, I was prepared to fold to any bet, on the theory there is always a better place to get it in bad. But instead it checked around, and I gladly asked the dealer for a free card.

The turn was even more interesting—the 2s—giving me the straight. This time, the maniac threw out $50, basically 1/3 of the pot. Two players flat called, and I made the reluctant crying call.

The river was the 2h. Although I doubted there had been a slow-played set or two pair that boated, the fourth heart on the river was almost certainly the nail in the coffin for my straight. The other players took turns looking at their hole cards and checking. I checked and waited to see the inevitable showdown between big single hearts in the hole. As everyone stared at each other, I rolled my cards and dramatically announced, "I have a straight to the six!" hoping to prod the other players to show down and move things along.

Knowing my hand wasn't good, I looked over at the TV, waiting for the next hand. I heard the dealer announce "Flush wins." Well duh. But then, I saw the dealer pushing the pot to me. What the heck??

Oh yeah. I had a baby heart in my hand, so I had a flush, not a straight. Of course, I could only beat a naked 3h in the hole, but that was the only other heart held by anyone in the hand at showdown. Cha-ching! Feel like I missed a value bet there with that monster ....

Hand #3:  Once again, maniac opened in middle position for $35. Once again I called on the button with 8s7s. But to my surprise, the rest of the table folded. The flop was pretty good—Ah9s6c—giving me an open-ended straight draw. Maniac bet $50, I raised to $130, and the maniac auto-called. Hmm, he might have a hand this time. Turn was interesting—9c. Maniac checked, I bet $200, he called. At this point, if I didn't hit my straight, I was done with the hand. It was far too probable maniac had an Ace or 9.

River was not just a blank, it was a killer card—6h. Basically, if maniac has any Ace, 9, 6, or pocket pair, he wins. Maniac checked, and I checked. Maniac says, "You win," I respond, "I have eight high" and flashed my hand. Maniac goes, "Oh, I can beat that!" and tables QcJc. Ahhh, so he chased a flush draw, missed, and still has me beat. Sucks to be me.

I went to muck my loser hand when the guy next to me says, "Wait, you chop!" I paused, then realized that maniac and I were both playing the board because the Ace on board was the kicker for each of our hands. I tabled my cards, and we chopped the pot.

I ended up stacking maniac when I slow-played QhQd preflop, and we got it all-in on a flop of AsQcTc. Maniac showed Ac2c, which was stronger than I hoped. But the board ran out blanks and my set held up for a monster pot.

So back to selective attention. In each of these hands, I was so focused on one thing—a player's action or chasing my draw—that I missed other important developments. Of course, having it happen three times in a three hour session is not something I am terribly proud of. I'm certain that the circumstances—a last quick session, some residual fatigue, playing a maniac—contributed to the problem. But it's also a phenomenon that happens even to the best trained professionals; for example, a decent percentage of radiologists failed to detect a gorilla shape when reviewing CT scans for tumors. And for you smug folks who saw the gorilla in the first video and who are laughing at my stupidity, try this follow up test:



In any event, being aware of this psychological phenomenon will hopefully make it less likely to recur in my future poker sessions.

Or I'm just getting old.

Two Kings Dead in Hit and Run at Aria

Last week, I managed to squeeze some poker into my busy vacation schedule of chaperoning drunks around Vegas. As I was taking advantage of an excellent Bellagio room rate, I wanted to keep my play focused on MGM Megalith rooms, so I strolled over to Aria one morning to check out the action.

With the WSOP in town, Aria's poker room was humming, with maybe ten tables running by 11:00 a.m. and long lists for $1/$3 and $2/$5 NLHE, as well as $1/$3 PLO. Not feeling up for the roller coaster of gamboooling that early in the day, I put my name on both the $1/$3 and $2/$5 NLHE lists, figuring I would play whichever game opened up first.

The floor soon opened a new $2/$5 NLHE table, so I vaulted to the top of that list. Shortly after, I was called for a spot at an established $2/$5 NLHE game. As I approached the table, it was pretty obvious this was a game that had run all night, with several players having wads of $100 bills and stacks of green and black chips in play. A glance around the table confirmed that this was not the game I was looking for; eight players, all in their 20s, all wearing hoodies and sunglasses. Yes, I had stumbled into a nest of WSOP pro-wannabes. So I pulled $400 out of my pocket and nodded when the floor asked me if I wanted to remain on the $1/$3 NLHE list.

Working on the assumption the table would play loose and aggressive, I vowed to play tight for an orbit or two to feel out the exploitable spots. It's good to have plans.

First hand, I was in the big blind. Action folded to hijack who raised to $15. Button thought and smooth called. Small blind called. I looked down to find 9h8h. Well, I would complete the action, and my cards were soooooted, so of course I called.

Flop was JhTh4d. Yahtzee!

I checked, assuming Hijack would c-bet, allowing me to check-raise with my monster draw and take down a nice first pot. Hijack did not disappoint, auto-betting $40. But then Button threw a monkey wrench into my plans, thinking a bit before raising to $110. Small blind insta-folded. Yikes! Here's where not knowing the table really makes poker tough. Was Button a tight player, raising with strong hands like sets, and top two pair? Or was Button betting top or second pair, or maybe a draw of his own, albeit bigger than mine, say the nut heart draw, KQ, or even something like AhQh? Or was Button just aggro-barreling with an underpair or air, leveraging a night of plays and reads of Hijack in an attempt to steal a pot?

After a bit of thought, I decided my draw was too strong to fold against two obviously aggro opponents. I pushed all-in, and was rather indifferent to whether either or both players called. Hijack snap-called, and Button nearly beat him into the pot, going all-in for maybe an additional $30. Hijack auto-called, and we were off to the races.

Just then the floor announced a new $1/$3 NLHE game starting at the table next to our table, and my name was called for the game. I watched as the board ran out. Turn—Qd. Donkey Kong! Well, unless I was up against AhKh ... Just so the board didn't pair, I had a shot. River—Qs. Ruh roh, Rooby!

I had a feeling I was beat somehow, somewhere. Still, I rolled my hand, and channeled my best Santa Claus drawl, announcing, "I have ... straight." My opponents stared at each other, and I started to feel a little better when Hijack asked the dealer, "Is there a side pot?" The dealer confirmed there was a side pot, and Hijack showed pocket Kings. Button looked disgusted, but mucked without showing. I suspect Button had JT for altos dos pairs and was counterfeited by the running Queens.

As the dealer broke down our stacks to figure out how much I had won, I strolled over to the new $1/$3 game and put down my player card to lock up a seat. I grabbed two racks on my way back to the table, just as the dealer was pushing me a ~$1,200 pot. I tossed the dealer three red chips, then racked up the rest of the pot. As the table stared at me, I politely said, "Good playing with you gents, but my game is starting." Then I headed over to my new table where I had a lucrative session before heading back to Bellagio.

And I didn't end up in a hole in the desert. Truly, I run good.

D'Bag O' the Day (v. 3.1)—Splashing Zee Pot at Aria

"In my club, I will splash the pot whenever the fuck I please."

~Teddy KGB (John Malkovich), in Rounders

As my faithful readers are aware, I enjoy playing a little Pot Limit Gamboool (PLG) from time to time. In Vegas, the poker rooms at Aria and Venetian have been spreading fairly regular low stakes PLG games the past year and half or so, while the Pokerati half-n-half NLHE/PLG game has been rotating around several Vegas locales for at least three years (home base has been at the Palms for the past year or so). [FN1] During that time, I've managed some big scores (e.g., hitting both ends of a straight flush draw while running it twice for a monsterpotten at Venetian during IMOP-VI), and some memorable flameouts (e.g., getting felted by Orel Hersheiser's quad ducks at Aria during WPBT 2011). The PLG deities giveth, the PLG deities taketh away, praise be the PLG deities.

This past December I was in Vegas for the WPBT (for those of you unfamiliar with the WPBT, my 2010 tournament summary and trip report, and my 2011 food porn report should give you some flavor). On my last evening, after most of the WPBT crew had departed, I was playing a session of PLG at Aria. The game was playing deep and aggressive, so I played pretty tight and walked away with a triple up after about a three hour session. But the most interesting dynamics at the table didn't involve me at all.

When I sat down at the game, it took less than an orbit to figure out that three young guns were engaged in a full-fledged cock-measuring war (and not in the entertaining gay porn way). Each of the guys had over a thousand dollars behind, and there was a lot of jawing, taunting, and generalized verbal warfare. One of the guys was a know-it-all expert who critiqued every hand, refused to run it twice, and never acknowledged drawing out while always bitching about losing to a draw. Another of the guys was an uber-aggressive hoodie-n-shades player, who loved to mix it up and jaw with his opponents. Expert had gone on a mini-rush to build his stack to over $2,500, while Hoodie had a healthy stack over $1,000. Expert and Hoodie sparred back and forth, but generally avoided each other and made money by bullying the weaker players at the table.

Until "The Hand". It was probably inevitable that Expert and Hoodie would have an epic clash, given their styles of play. Still, one has to acknowledge the PLG deities have a pretty sick sense of humor. The Hand started innocuously enough. Preflop, action limped to Hoodie who raised the pot. There was a caller to Expert on the button, who reraised the pot (to ~$75 total); only Hoodie called. At this point, I felt Hoodie had a good hand, maybe a rundown hand like J-T-9-8 double suited, or a decent pair with straight and flush cards, like Q-Q-J-T with a suit. Expert could easily have been on a position steal, but he likely had a decent fallback hand, with some kind of bigger pair with straight or flush cards.

The flop came out Ks-Jd-5s. Hoodie checked, Expert bet pot (~$225), Hoodie called. So far, pretty standard. Expert might have anything from a set to pure air, while Hoodie might have straight and/or flush draws, maybe with top pair.

The turn brought the Th. Hoodie checked, Expert bet $400, and Hoodie moved all-in for roughly $600 more. Expert thought, groaned, and called. Hoodie asked if Expert wanted to run it twice. Expert waved his hand dismissively and barked, "I only run it once." Hoodie nodded, picked two cards out of his hand, and tabled them:

AsQs ... giving Hoodie the nut straight and nut flush redraw. Expert started carping about how Hoodie had "gotten so f@#$ing lucky," showing his KdKhXdXh for top set. Hoodie pointed out he had a big draw, which Expert dismissed. Expert said to the dealer, "Come on, give me some justice! Pair the f@#$ing board!"

And so the dealer did:  Jh

"Justice!" shouted Expert.

"Quads," muttered Hoodie, rolling over his other two cards: JsJc

Expert stared at the board, looking like his puppy or his nuts had been kicked. The dealer counted down Hoodie's stack, and calmly stated, "$985 more." Expert muttered something profane under his breath, so the dealer began to reach forward to Expert's stacks to pull out the requisite chips. Expert snapped, "Don't touch my chips! I'll handle it!"

Then Expert deliberately counted out $85, breaking it down. He picked up the chips and flicked them forward into the pot, "splashing the pot". As the dealer scrambled to pull the chips out to verify the amount, Expert deliberately slid out a series of nine stacks of twenty $5 chips each. Instead of letting the dealer verify the stack size and slide the stacks to Hoodie, Expert deliberately picked up each stack and lobbed each of them forward into the pot, one at a time. Once Expert's tantrum was over, the dealer silently re-stacked the entire pot, re-worked all four streets of betting, verified the pot size, and slid the chips to Hoodie.

In a bit of poker justice, Expert went on super monkey tilt and burned through his remaining stack of about $1,000, plus another $3,000 in the next hour.

Moral of the story—Don't splash zee pot.



How could I not include the "splash zee pot" scene from Rounders?


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[FN1]  The Venetian PLG game has $1/$2 blinds, which are counted as $5 for pot-calculation purposes, with a $5 bring-in (if you call preflop, it's $5; first raise without a limp is to $15). The Aria PLG game has $1/$3 blinds, which are counted as $3 for preflop action, with post-flop action in $5 increments (first raise without a limp is to $12). The Aria game plays a bit smaller if there is a lot of preflop action, otherwise the games play pretty much the same. Buy-ins are $200-$500 at Aria, $200-$1,000 at Venetian. Overall, the skill level is a bit tougher at Venetian, but there are plenty of relatively novice players at both games. Dealers at both rooms generally are pretty knowledgeable and skilled at handling a pot limit game.

Both rooms also spread $2/$5 PLG on a fairly regular basis. However, the skill level and pot sizes in those games are not for the faint of heart or low of bankroll. As a rule of thumb, PLG plays twice as big as a NLHE game of the same blind structure. So, to play $1/$3 PLG, you should have a bankroll at least big enough to play $2/$5 NLHE. To play $2/$5 PLG, you should have a bankroll big enough to handle the swings at $5/$10 NLHE.

Bob Loblaw on the WPBT

"There's more to life than strippers and booze and buckets of blood.  Why do you guys have buckets of blood?" 

—Michael Bluth (Jason Bateman), on Arrested Development

One of my favorite all-time TV comedies was the hilarious, and underappreciated, Arrested Development.  The show was filled with offbeat, zany characters* finding themselves in absurd situations, while cracking snappy one-liners.  Sounds a lot like the recent WPBT Winter Classic!

I arranged my annual Festivus solo trip to Vegas to coincide with the WPBT this year.  I figured I followed many of these folks' blogs, why not meet a few of them?  Not to mention their trip reports always seemed to involve a high degree of hilarity ...

So I departed Des Moines Thursday morning, landing in Vegas before noon.  My room at Planet Hollywood was not yet available, so I moseyed over to Aria to play some poker.  I ran into "Missing Flops", a Vegas lawyer who blogs on Vegas Poker Now, who was playing the 1:00 p.m. tournament. My poker session was pretty meh, but I did entertain myself by tormenting a hoodie.  This young kid would glare at me from under his hoodie anytime I raised or called his bet.  I had a decent read on his style, which was a basic uber-aggressive approach that might've been profitable three or four years ago.  So, I played a few pots with him, winning almost all of them.  One interesting hand I had some sort of suited gapper and limped UTG.  Hoodie raised to $15, got a couple of callers, so I repopped it to $75 straight; big glare and a muck.  The pièce de résistance was when I called him down in position with Q6 soooted for bottom pair after he three-barreled an unimproved Ace-King.  The glare after I rolled over that hand probably means I shouldn't expect a holiday card this year.  As I was walking back to Planet Hollywood to check into my room (themed around the forgettable—and for me, forgotten—movie Mimic), the Aria poker room tweeted:

@Grange95 thanks for coming out!

Unintentional comedy at its finest.

After checking into Planet Hollywood, I wandered down the Strip to play "flop a Royal" at Mirage.  I failed.  Then it was on to dinner with Poker Grump and Missing Flops at Dos Caminos in the Palazzo.  There was a great deal of merriment and some serious debate over poker and politics.  Then it was off to the Imperial Palace to check up on the WPBT crew at the Geisha Bar.

At this point, I was confronted with a horde of poker bloggers.  Lots of names and faces were learned and promptly forgotten.  Hey, I'm old now, it happens.  I do remember meeting Otis (resplendent in a white polyester sportcoat with faux suede trim), BuddyDank (central casting for any middle-aged slacker), Ian (central Iowa resident I had inexplicably never seen at a poker table before, and whose blogger name I forget; EDIT: It's NumbBono!), and Falstaff (a big ol' teddy bear who was carrying a pitcher of beer, but no glass.  Epic!).  The irrepressible F-Train made an appearance, and I also saw the famed Pauly at the nearby pai gow table, with a rowdy group of compatriots.

Although I'm a fairly outgoing person, being the newbie among a herd of old friends can be a little awkward.  So I wandered over to the IP's poker room.  I had to play some 2/4 LHE while waiting for a 1/2 NLHE seat to open, but that worked out just fine as Alaska Gal dealt me pocket Kings, flopped me a set, and I managed to get an old guy with KJ to think I was bullying him, resulting in a pot over $75.  Excellent!  I don't remember much of the 1/2 NLHE game, except that CaityCaity, CK, skidoo, Katkin, and Falstaff all put in appearances at various points in time.

I then wandered back to P-Ho, intending to go to bed, but instead being seduced by the siren song of a juicy NLHE game.  There were a couple of young guys I would see several times over the next few days, as well as a crazy Asian guy fresh off a baccarat session.  This guy would buy in for $300, leave it in the rack, and then go all-in preflop.  After a few rounds of this, with most folks folding, I screwed up the courage to call him with 44 and a $100ish stack.  I doubled up.  A few hands later, I call again, with 66, and held up.  A few hands later, I call again with 44, and again doubled up.  The other guys, however, were not doing as well, finding hands like AK, AJ, and QQ getting shot down by the crazy guy's trash hands.  It was the most insane poker I've seen, outside several sessions at Bally's after midnight (crazy Gremlin poker there!).  The weirdest moment came when the crazy guy mentioned that he was waiting for his suite to be set up.  Apparently, he was a high roller, and was hosting a party that afternoon, so he was having a stripper pole and shower installed in the living room.  Clearly I don't do Vegas properly.

Friday morning rolled around ... well, Friday noon rolled around, and I headed out to find some poker.  I decided to see what Bally's was like in the daylight hours.  Apparently, just as crazy.  I was seated next to a weird dude who seemed wired.  In between jitters, he would run off at the mouth, sharing that he preferred heroin to booze "because it doesn't affect my poker game as much", and bragging he not only once starred in porn (maybe back in the early 80s), he also "once was on TV and used to date strippers".  He hit on a nice Swedish lady at the table, including using this gem of a pickup line: "You're from Sweden?  I love IKEA and Swedish porn."  Unfortunately, he also was a bad poker player.  When I flopped a set and had trapped a kid overplaying Aces, PornStar calls my massive check-raise saying, "I need to gamble here."  Yes, the poker gods do reward donkeys, letting him flush my set for a monsterpotten.  Le sigh.

I met up with my Brooklyn gals, Mary and "Dawn Summers" (too many blogs to link), for dinner at the Grand Wok at MGM.  Joining us were several of their NYC crew, including Ross, F-Train, and VinNay.  Dawn and I took competing pictures of each other at the table:

After dinner, it was off to the MGM poker room for some cards and hilarity.  Instead, there were 2,000 drunk cowboys dancing at Centrifuge Bar, creating quite the ruckus.  I did play for a short time, including a hand where Josie dropped by to say hello, and saw me crack Aces with 9h4h; what a hot and fiery good luck charm she is!  I stayed long enough to see some smoking woman-on-woman action between CK and The Wife, then bailed for the quieter tables at Mirage.

Error.  Turns out, the Mirage was hosting the official National Finals Rodeo party in its sportsbook.  The entire sportsbook and surrounding casino floor space was crammed with cowboys and cowgirls dancing the night away.

 

In case you were wondering, why yes, that is a giant cactus in the middle of the Mirage sportsbook!  Now, lest you think I'm poking fun, let me be clear.  I grew up on a farm in western Nebraska, was in 4-H and FFA, did my share of showing and judging livestock at the county and state fairs, and had an uncle with a big cattle ranch in the Nebraska Sand Hills.  So, although I'm not a big rodeo fan, folks that are rodeo fans—complete with cowboy hats, cowboy boots, western cut jeans, western style shirts, and big shiny belt buckles—are part of my original tribe.  The band was actually quite good, and ripped through a ton of old school country hits (my favorite that night was a version of "Louisiana Saturday Night" that pretty much had the whole crowd two-steppin').  Regrettably, cowboys also can be donkeys—and lucky donkeys—at the poker tables, and after dodging quad aces then being whacked by two horrendous four-outers (is there any other kind?), I decided to pack it in for the night.

Of course, I had to stop by the P-Ho poker room, since it was conveniently located by the elevators to my room.  First hand I ran second nut flush into the nut flush, but then the tide turned as I started pounding greyhounds (to prevent scurvy, of course).  For my big hand of the night, I had K8 of crubs, flopped trip Kings, rivered quads, and got paid in full on my river shove (a 2x pot bet) by a young kid trying to impress his girlfriend with his Ace-rag bluff.  Now that's a hero call!  Thank you, come again!  I also had the pleasure of sitting next to a young Hungarian guy who recited lines from Rounders.  Nothing quite like a Hungarian doing an imitation of John Malkovich ("Teddy KBG") doing a bad Russian accent.

Saturday started off with the awesome WPBT tournament at Aria.  Since this didn't make it into my prior writeup of the tourney, I did want to mention I got to play for a bit with Chilly (who I knew from back in the day when I went to college with he and his wife), and also got to briefly meet the legendary Al Can't Hang (who is much smaller, quieter, and saner in real life than one might imagine).  EDIT:  I failed to mention a really interesting fellow I met during the tournament and later played some cash games with:  Travis, a/k/a "OnAFoldDraw".  Funny guy, good player, looking forward to hanging with him more next year.

After the tournament, I found myself walking over to MGM with Katkin, Dr. Chako, and The Wife to play mixed games.  The Doc and the Wife are awesome folks, very friendly and entertaining.  The Wife grew up in small town Wisconsin, so we found plenty to chat about.  For example, she had 50 or so people in her high school graduating class, while I had 7.  The mixed games were more donking than playing.  I did flop quad 9s in hold 'em against The Wife, and later tilted a fat guy with bad "Flock of Seagulls" hair into leaving the table after I kept calling him down when he tried to bluff (dude, bluffing in 3/6 limit? riiiigghhhttt).

The reindeer games came to a close when CK invited the Chakos and me to a comped dinner at Lemongrass in Aria.  This was a fantastic dinner, as we shared a couple of appetizers and four spicy Asian dishes.  I would highly recommend eating here with your Aria poker room comp dollars.  Even better than the food, however, was the company, as my dinner companions regaled me with amusing stories of prior WPBT hijinks as well as tales of their family lives.  That two hours was easily the highlight of my trip, and made me glad I had moved my Festivus trip to include the WPBT.  Good folks, those three.

After dinner, we cabbed it to Imperial Palace for some poker and to see who might be at the Geisha Bar.  At the bar, we saw Miami Don with his Golden Hammer trophy; a well-deserved win for a guy who had dominated my last table.  Pauly and some of the WPBT old guard were holding court, and I managed sightings of Astin and Katitude, two people I would love to chat with briefly next year.  Funny thing, I had pictured Astin as a brawny, outdoorsy guy, and in reality he's a sharp-dressing young professional type.  Katitude, though, fit my image of her.  Both seem to be pretty easy-going and entertaining.

I wandered over to the IP poker tables, where I lost a big pot to Grubette (at least, I think it was her), when my AcTc flopped top pair and a flush draw, and the turn card gave me altos dos pairs.  Regrettably, it also gave Grubette her gutterball Broadway, and I failed to improve.  My own fault though, for not raising enough on the flop.  However, I could hardly be gloomy because The Wife mentioned she was straddling at her table, which somehow led to her straddling me and giving me a lap dance during a Dealertainer rendition of "Achy Breaky Heart".  There were dozens of guys jealous of me at that point!

The evening progressed with other friends joining the action at various points, including Dawn, Mary, and CaityCaity.  There was one weird guy at the table, who dressed like he was touring with some bad 80s band.  The only other memorable hand of the session was when, for only the second time in my life, I folded Kings preflop.  A older, nitty guy had raised big, I reraised, and he proceeded to shove without hesitation.  I assumed he had Aces, and I also wanted to protect my ~$450 stack.  He rolled over ... A8 soooted.  Wow.  I play so bad.  (For what it's worth, the only other time I folded Kings preflop was under similar circumstances, but with far deeper stacks; I was wrong that time, too).

I headed back to P-Ho, where the late night game was in full crazy mode.  Two young guys at the table were trying to prop bet on all manner of stupid stuff, like whether the next person to walk past a certain spot would be male or female.  Thankfully, the louder one was a bad player, and donated ~$1,500 to the table.  Strangely, when the song "Danger Zone" came on, it turned out he not only had no idea the song was in the movie Top Gun, he had never even heard of Top Gun!  Kids these days ... However, this did lead to a hilarious remainder of the session, as we nicknamed the three young guys at the table wearing sunglasses "Goose", "Maverick", and "Iceman".

Sunday was much more sedate.  I skipped the WPBT festivities at Lagasse's Stadium in favor of sleeping in followed by a fun lunch at Hash House A Go Go with "Local Rock", a frequent poster on AVP.  I then tracked down Dr. Chako and The Wife at the Venetian/Palazzo compound in order to say goodbye.  This was followed by a rapid shopping trip for something to pay the spouse pass; I ended up getting the sig other a watch, since it was from a trendy designer he likes, it travels easily, and I about threw up in my mouth at the idea of spending $150-$200 for a shirt he wanted.

Shopping done, I returned to the Venetian to play some $1/$2 PLG (pot limit gambooool).  Also at the table were entertaining WPBT degenerates Drizz, Falstaff, and Katkin, along with a rotating assortment of crazy Canadians, a scary Scandi, and an alliterative Asian.  The game was great fun, and I even cashed out a nice profit.  One cooler hand I tweeted, where I flopped Kings-up with a flush draw and turned Kings-full:

Falstaff and I get it in on the turn, my Ks full of 8s vs. his KQ76. He calls for the Queen. I cry. #PLG #wpbt

There was another big hand, this time where I folded on the flop to monster three-way action.  I folded a monster draw that I think should have been a call, but I'll post the hand later for comments.  Anyway, a little before midnight, Katkin and I cashed out and went to Noodle Asia for some food and interesting poker and politics chat.  If you ever have a chance to sit down with Katkin, do it.  Fascinating fellow.

I headed back to P-Ho, popping into Imperial Palace briefly to say goodbye to Dawn and Mary.  The P-Ho late night game was in full crazy swing, yet I couldn't get much traction.  My final hand of the trip involved me getting it all-in three ways on the flop with Ac2c vs. CaityCaity's 99 and some young ET's 88.  Final board: Qc56c79.  Yup, not only did crubs not get there (thanks so much, CK), but Caity's set gave ET his miracle straight.  Yup, I run awesome.

During this trip, I had experienced every kind of negative variance.  I lost to 2-outers, 3-outers, and 4-outers.  I was outflopped, turned, and rivered.  I was outdrawn, but couldn't hit my monster draws.  I ran into set over set, straight over straight, flush over flush, boat over boat, and yes, even ran into quads.  Still, Vegas did have one last bad beat waiting for me, even after I put away the remnants of my Vegas bankroll.**  I got into a cab Monday morning to head to the airport.  Upon learning that I play poker, my cabbie proceeded to suck five minutes out of my soul by regaling me with his brother's bad beat story.  For those who care, his brother was supposedly playing $5/$10 NLHE at the Venetian, flopped quad Kings, and lost to a rivered royal flush (the other guy had QJ soooted and flopped the open-ended straight flush draw).  The cabbie was outraged the Venetian didn't have a badbeat jackpot, "like the Orleans, or other good poker rooms".  Please, join me in lighting a candle to the poker gods tonight in memory of this guy who now is apparently also driving cabs, trying to rebuild his poker bankroll.

I returned to Iowa to find single-figure temperatures, sub-zero windchills, and snow.  But, a happy Berkeley was there to snuggle up and keep me warm, and it was nice to actually get home.  Still, my Festivus/WPBT adventures were a ton of fun, and I look forward to next year when I can see my all my friends old and new, and hopefully meet more of the WPBT folks.  Notables on the "to meet" list:  Bayne, BadBlood, Iggy, StB, and April, though I quite likely met at least some of these folks and had no idea who they were.  

And next year, my 85 offsuit will hold up.

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* My favorite character name on the show was "Bob Loblaw", an attorney who also wrote a blog, "The Bob Loblaw Law Blog".  Say his name out loud and you'll get why his character always made me crack up.

** Actually, I ran well enough that, although it was a losing trip, most of the big pots I lost cut into my profits for that session, rather than into my initial buy-in.  Still, a small losing trip could've been a monster winning trip had the poker gods been just a bit more kind on a few key hands.

MGM Slides Closer to the Abyss

This past week saw the release of official corporate financial statements for the 1st Quarter of 2010, including financial statements for MGM Mirage (or whatever they call themselves this year), Las Vegas Sands (owner of Venetian and Palazzo), and Wynn Resorts (owner of, well, Wynn and Encore). Since Harrah's Entertainment went private, financial reporting is still available, but the data is more limited.

I discussed the Aria financial picture a month ago, when MGM issued an advisory warning of projected poor first quarter financial results, primarily related to the City Center project. None of the final numbers reported last week are significantly different than the advisory numbers.  However, it appears that Aria's gambling revenues are fairly solid, at $75.9 million.  But the occupancy issue at Aria (a mere 63%) remains a serious issue going forward:

[MGM Mirage CEO Jim] Murren said CityCenter's non-gambling revenue—which he told Nevada gambling regulators last year could end up being four times greater than its casino revenue—will take longer to grow.

"That side takes longer to build unless you just want to give away the store and be highly promotional and lower the room rates," Murren said. "That would be, we believe, very damaging long term, and unnecessary.

"We fortunately have the luxury of time to allow Aria and CityCenter to build in a graceful, logical fashion," he said. "We're not in a crisis mode where we need a certain amount of money on a daily basis or a weekly basis because of some financial covenant."

....

Murren said Aria's bookings are improving for the rest of the year for conferences, which generate higher room rates than leisure travel. He expects that to help occupancy.

—Oskar Garcia (AP), in The Tacoma News Tribune (5/6/10) (emphasis added).

The problem with Murren's statement is that, at least to my eye, Aria's marketing blitz the past month or so has been directed to individual gamblers, via emails to MGM slot club members and internet ads targeted to gaming related websites.  This is hardly the higher-revenue conference-attending crowd that Murren claims is vital to Aria's survival.  More to the point, the email and online ads are for greatly reduced rates, usually around $109 for weekdays, $139 on weekends.  This is certain to undercut Aria's intended price point which is meant to compete with the $200+ average daily rates (ADR) of Bellagio, Wynn/Encore, and Venetian/Palazzo.

Also of note is that MGM failed to release a Revenue Per Available Room (REVPAR) figure for Aria, a standard metric for measuring revenue in the casino business.  MGM provided REVPAR data for all of its other properties.  As a reference point, Bellagio had an ADR of $199 and a REVPAR of $181 for the quarter, which appears a fairly standard ratio for the higher end Strip properties—the ADR/REVPAR figures for Venetian ($202/$180), Palazzo ($214/$201), and Wynn/Encore ($203/$181) are in the same general range as Bellagio.  Presumably, Aria's REVPAR is embarassingly low, or it would have been reported.

While digging through some older Las Vegas Sands financial statements, I discovered that the Palazzo, which opened in December 2007, had first quarter 2008 occupancy of 79.1%, ADR of $244, and REVPAR of $193.  I tried to find first quarter data for Encore following its opening in December 2008, but Wynn Resorts does not separate out the two Vegas properties in its financial reports.  However, the joint Wynn/Encore figures for that first quarter of 2009 reflect an occupancy rate of 89.5%, ADR of $222, and REVPAR of $199, almost identical to Palazzo's performance that same period, and slightly ahead of Venetian.  Given that Aria is running 16 points behind Palazzo's post-opening first quarter occupancy rate, and has a substantially lower ADR ($194), the REVPAR for Aria seems highly likely to fall below $150.  If so, those results have to be greatly disappointing for MGM.

While looking through the financial statements, I put together a few spreadsheets analyzing past year trends, as well as comparing trends from the peak market of 2007 through present (you can review the spreadsheets here).  I also put together some interesting charts from the financial data.  Unfortunately, the Harrah's Entertainment financial data I was able to locate was not particularly helpful, as it didn't break the data out in as detailed a fashion as the other major Strip players.  In fact, for Harrah's, occupancy rates, ADR, and REVPAR are not reported, nor are most categories of revenues and expenses (Harrah's reports casino revenue, and lumps all other revenue streams into an "other" category).  But, let's take a quick look at what the data show (you can click on any chart for an enlarged version).

These first two charts show the trend by revenue category for MGM Mirage's Strip properties, comparing first quarters from 2007-2010.  Essentially, MGM's net revenues are down 30%-48% in all categories (see the spreadsheets for detailed breakdown). 

The next chart compares ADR and REVPAR data for MGM Mirage Strip properties, Wynn/Encore (combined), and the Venetian (the Palazzo data is similar, and was omitted to make the chart clearer).  Harrah's does not report ADR and REVPAR figures, but their financial statements indicate that both statistics continued to decline; I suspect their figures would fall near or below the MGM Mirage line given their stable of "value" oriented resorts.  In fairness to MGM, the Bellagio's ADR/REVPAR stats would be quite close to the Venetian and Wynn numbers.  The problem is that MGM needs Aria to be another Bellagio (or better), while it seems more likely to perform as another Mandalay Bay or Mirage.

 

The final four charts compare four categories of revenues for MGM Mirage Strip properties, Las Vegas Sands, and Wynn Resorts.  Harrah's Entertainment has been added into the chart for casino revenue, the only category where reliable data could be found.  For the retail/entertainment category, the two categories were combined to enable apples to apples comparisons across the different reporting methods; however, the general ratio of retail to entertainment revenues is roughly 60/40.  Given MGM Mirage's stranglehold on the Cirque du Soleil shows, as well as any number of other shows, the poor performance in the entertainment revenue category is rather curious.

 

From the data, it looks like MGM is still struggling, with the revenue decreases flattening out, but still continuing to decline across all categories.  Harrah's is showing an uptick in casino revenues, but the financial statements indicate that revenues overall are down 4.4%; with non-casino revenues comprising about 2/3 of overall revenues, it's apparent that non-casino revenues declined at a greater rate than 4.4%.  For Sands Las Vegas and Wynn Resorts, however, it looks like they have hit bottom and are starting to climb back out of their recent financial hole, with Sands Las Vegas doing better than Wynn Resorts.  One interesting side note is that Sands Las Vegas got more bang for their buck with Palazzo (opening December 2007) than Wynn Resorts did with Encore (opening December 2008).

One interesting piece of information I came across in the Sands Las Vegas and Wynn Resorts financial statements was the slot "hold" rate.  Sands Las Vegas routinely reports a slots hold of 7.0%-7.8% (increased from 6% in 2008), while Wynn Resorts reports a lower hold of 4.5%-5.5%.  So, if you're looking for the best bang for your buck, at least at the ritzy casinos, you may want to make the walk over to Wynn or Encore instead of sticking around the Palazzo or Venetian.

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* UPDATE (10 May 2010):  Harrah's Entertainment released a quarterly report today (May 10, 2010), which provided additional financial data that has been incorporated into the Casino Net Revenue chart and accompanying discussion.

The City Center Pit of Despair

Count Rugen:  Ah. Are you coming down into the pit? Westley's got his strength back. I'm starting him on the machine tonight.

Prince Humperdinck:  Tyrone, you know how much I love watching you work, but I've got my country's 500th anniversary to plan, my wedding to arrange, my wife to murder, and Guilder to frame for it; I'm swamped.

Count Rugen:  Get some rest. If you haven't got your health, then you haven't got anything.

—The Princess Bride

In the movie The Princess Bride, the villain Count Rugen tortures the hero Westley in the "Pit of Despair" with a machine that sucks out a person's remaining years of life, causing them to scream in horrendous anguish.  The screeching and wailing you heard yesterday likely was from investors in MGM Grand-Mirage (MGM) as its stock price fell on MGM's reports of dismal first quarter earnings projections, as the CityCenter project is quite literally sucking out all of MGM's current and future profits.

The numbers for Aria are shockingly bad:  a $66 million operating loss ($54 million of which is depreciation), and a pathetic 63% occupancy rate.  As I wrote in a recent review of City Center, the Aria casino seems designed to eschew luring in walk-by customers from the Strip in favor of trapping its hotel guests inside.  This strategy obviously won't be successful if you aren't getting any hotel guests.

Even worse news for City Center comes from their residential condo units.  According to an article by Howard Stutz at the Las Vegas Review-Journal:

• MGM took an "approximately $171 million noncash impairment charge related to the development's 2,400 residential units";
• MGM recorded "revenues of $24 million related to forfeited residential deposits"; and,
• Only "25 condominium sales had closed by March 31 with a combined sales price of $38 million".

Let's unpack this data a bit.  Getting $24 million in bonus cash from forfeited deposits sounds great—for this quarter.  I don't know how much of a deposit was required per condo, but those canceled sales have to affect hundreds of condos, and City Center won't be getting any revenue from those condos in the near future.  Based on the closings reported, each condo is averaging around $1.5 million, so the canceled condos translate into hundreds of millions in deferred revenues that probably won't be recouped for more than a year, if not significantly longer.  Now, City Center will save some money in the short term by not having to finish all of those condos, but selling those condos was a key part of their financing plan.  But at least they've closed on a whopping 25 out of 2,400 condos, so they've got that going for them, which is nice.  Even assuming another couple of hundred condos have been sold and will close later in the year, it looks like City Center still will have a glut of unsold condos to carry into the next few years—if they have the cash to do so.

Speaking of cash, digging into the financial statements themselves is kind of interesting, in a Discovery Channel show about vultures and dung beetles sort of way.  First, the gaming industry has definitely not recovered from the recession:

Total casino revenue is expected to be approximately 5% lower than the prior year, with slots revenue down approximately 1% for the quarter. The Company's table games volume, excluding baccarat, was down 4% in the quarter, but baccarat volume was up 17% compared to the prior year quarter. The overall table games hold percentage was lower in 2010 than the prior year quarter; in the current year first quarter the hold percentage was near the midpoint of the Company's normal 18% to 22%, while in the 2009 quarter it was at the top end of the range.

The increase in baccarat volume likely means marketing efforts have been focused on Asian high-rollers, something all the major casinos probably have been making a priority now that the great American home equity rave is over.  Also, the MGM house has been experiencing a little negative variance on the table games, meaning we can all expect more 6/5 payout, eight deck, continual shuffle blackjack tables.  Poker isn't broken out separately from the pit games, but I suspect poker is holding its own; poker players might drop down stakes in a recession, but the volume of games seems about standard on my recent trips, and rake is more about volume than game size.  Still, it wouldn't surprise me if the MGM family took a look at Harrah's and made a move to $5 maximum rake.

The other interesting information is the breakdown of operating income by casino.  Now, the financial statements also show a breakdown of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), which is a useful and meaningful figure for certain accounting purposes.  But, let's focus on the operating income portion of earnings, which is the actual hard cash coming in the door, and compare it to the first quarter of 2009 (all figures in thousands of dollars):

It seems that business is down across the board for the MGM family of Strip casinos, but the drag of City Center is quite obvious.  Also, although the financial strength of previous MGM family flagship Bellagio is no surprise, the strong performance of New York New York relative to its MGM siblings was a major surprise.  The sharp drop off for Mandalay Bay is puzzling, although that might be related to reduced numbers of conventions (Mandalay Bay has a large convention area).  The Monte Carlo numbers are almost certainly skewed by the fire last year; insurance proceeds for business interruption were discussed in the financial statements, but they seem to be accounted for separate from operating income.*  It's also pretty obvious that Circus Circus should be imploded, except what could be done with that crappy property in the current economy?

No matter how you slice it, City Center is appearing more and more like a boondoggle.  Maybe MGM was part of a covert government plan to bankrupt Dubai by sucking them into this money pit ... Ya never know!

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* ADDENDUM (18 April 2010):  Looking back at the financial statements, the Monte Carlo fire insurance proceeds were accounted for as follows:

The prior year [2009] results include the $190 million pre-tax gain on the TI sale as well as $15 million of Monte Carlo business interruption insurance recovery income (recorded as a reduction to general and administrative expense) and $7 million of Monte Carlo property damage insurance recovery income (recorded as property transactions, net).

However, I forgot that the fire was in January 2008, not last year.  So, the 2009 and 2010 figures cited above are both from full operations.  From the financial statements in the recent press release, it's unclear whether the $15 million in business interruption insurance proceeds were included in the 2009 operating income figure.  Even assuming insurance proceeds were included (making the 2009 operating income exclusive of insurance proceeds something closer to $8 million), the Monte Carlo's operating income for this year is still significantly reduced.  Makes you wonder if City Center is sucking its neighbor dry.

An Aria for Aria—Is a Fat Lady Singing for City Center?

Last week, I stayed at Aria at the new City Center for the first time, and also attended a conference at Vdara, another City Center hotel.  Vdara certainly has its own distinct personality, very much in keeping with its "spa" mentality; think "quiet plus flowers".  Vdara might be a good place to stay if you go to Vegas with your wife who wants to avoid the typical casino atmosphere.  It's easy to get from Vdara to Bellagio, but remarkably inconvenient to travel between Aria and Vdara.  There is a tram, but I prefer to walk, and one thing the City Center layout does is strongly discourage walking anywhere.

The Aria rooms were nice, smaller than Bellagio, about on a par with Wynn for size and decor.  Aria aims for and mostly hits the same level of quality as the other five-star resorts on the Strip (Wynn, Venetian, Bellagio).  Although the room is fully automated from a central control panel by the bed, you can't check out from your room.  The check out lines were long, but Aria did have people posted in the lobby to take down email addresses for guests who wanted to check out without reviewing their bill.  I took this option, but the email of my bill did not show up in the promised 30 minutes, nor at all even six days later.  Kind of an annoying glitch for a hotel aiming for "elite" status.

I played several sessions at the Aria poker room in my past two trips this month, as well as a few sessions during mid-December right after the room opened.  On my recent trips, the crowds have predictably thinned as the novelty has worn off.  Instead of 'round the clock games, the room was dark most mornings with cash games starting between 11:00 am and 1:00 pm.  The daily tourneys at 1:00 and 7:00 pm were fairly well attended (30-40 runners seemed typical), and offer good structures for the $100+$20 buy-in.  But by late afternoon, there are usually at least five 1/3 NLHE (increasing in the evenings), with a couple of 2/5 NLHE games also running most evenings.  There seemed to be regular 4/8 LHE and 4/8 Omaha8 games, along with occasional 9/18 Omaha8, 9/18 LHE, and 2/5 PLO games.  The room is offering double hourly comps (triple during early morning hours) until June 1.  Overall, the poker room is one bright spot in the Aria experiment.

I did enjoy playing at the Aria poker room.  Management still seems to be going the extra mile to keep players happy, opening new games quickly, advertising for players for games with interest lists, and generally being attentive and friendly.  The dealers are a mixed bag, with several entertaining and highly competent dealers, and a handful who give the attitude they would rather be elsewhere.  I posted one particularly vexing experience at All Vegas Poker, but I'll repost it here as well:

Overall I like the [Aria poker] room, but I had one terrible dealer experience around 3:30 or 4:00 am. A female dealer was having a very animated and lengthy conversation with a player at the table who was also a dealer and at least a casual friend. I get AK in EP, raise, and get called by the button and also her buddy in the big blind. Flop is Ace high with a couple os small suited cards. Buddy checks, and I take some chips and begin cutting them next to the rail as I debated the amount of the raise. Next thing I know, dealer says, "checks around" and begins to burn and turn. I immediately say, "wait, I haven't acted." Dealer says, " you checked" and makes a gesture with all five fingers in a claw shape tapping the table. Now, my only hand on the table always had chips, was by the rail, and never tapped anything. I said, "I was cutting chips." Dealer's buddy piped up, "that was an obvious check," but other guy in the hand said he didn't know, and nobody else at table saw a check. Buddy pipes up again, "you checked" and dealer backed her buddy. I was as furious as I can remember being at a poker table, but I knew it was pointless to ask for a floor. The turn was an offsuit Jack, I bet it in a very deliberate manner, and took down the pot.

In 7+ years of playing live poker in casinos, I've never failed to tip a dealer (except by accident). I tipped on this hand as well, but it was the first time I had to think about it.

Although I very much liked Aria and Vdara from a design and "vibe" perspective, I'm not certain the City Center concept will ultimately prove successful. Back in mid-December, just after Aria opened, the casino was fairly busy while the poker room was hopping at all hours, despite being a typically slow pre-holiday week on the Strip as a whole. But in my two recent visits in March, the casino was notably less busy than other Strip properties. For example, mid-week, Bellagio seemed busy, but they were offering some $10 minimum tables in the pits. Bally's and Planet Hollywood were also very busy. Aria had all $25 minimum tables, and few gamblers. The Aria sportsbook was dead in early March, and moderately busy for the opening rounds of the NCAA tourney, but it was a ghost town compared to the crowds at Mirage, Caesars Palace, Bally's, and Bellagio.  Crystals, the upscale mall in City Center, has been desolate every time I've walked through.

I think a big part of the problem is that the City Center design is not conducive to walk-by traffic from the Strip.  City Center seems designed to be a self-contained resort, where the flies get caught in the web and don't leave until they are sucked dry.  As noted above, it is remarkably inconvenient to get into the complex while walking the Strip, and even more inconvenient to leave on foot.  But a major attraction of the Strip is the ability to walk from casino to casino.  Tourists like to be able to walk from Bellagio to Caesars to Mirage, or from TI to Venetian to Wynn, or from Bally's to Paris to Planet Hollywood.  Tourists do not like to be tied to only one casino for entertainment, no matter how ritzy that casino might be.  Just think of the typical Vegas day—lay by the pool at your hotel, shopping at Caesars Forum Shops or Fashion Mall, drinks at one casino, dinner at another resort, show at still another resort, and drinks/gambling/poker at yet another casino.  The City Center simply makes that experience inconvenient.  Plus, with less "walk-by" traffic, the casino seems less "fun" for those who do walk in, making it less likely they'll stay.

I stayed at Aria on an email offer sent to MGM-Mirage players card holders.  I'm about as low a level players club member as you'll find, and I got a rate of $109/night as an "introduction to Aria".  Fair enough, they want to get people in the doors the first few months.  But a couple of days ago, I got another offer for the summer busy season, still at $109/night.  Now, I'm not complaining, I like a good deal.  But I'm not getting comparable offers for Bellagio, which is also an "elite" MGM-Mirage property right next door.  I'm certainly not getting similar offers from Venetian, Wynn, or Caesars Palace, purportedly Aria's competition.  I can only surmise Aria is having trouble attracting hotel customers while the other elite properties are pretty much in a "business as usual" mode. 

Maybe City Center's business will pick up with more marketing (I've seen a lot of online ads for Aria recently) and the approach of the busy tourist season.  Maybe Aria's target audience is already satisfied with the other elite casinos on the Strip and sees no need to make the switch to Aria.  Maybe it's a matter of bad timing, opening an upper-class casino in the midst of an economic downturn.  All I know is that, with billions in financing to pay back, Aria is going to need something more to keep the circling vultures at bay.  In fact, I suspect Aria needs what every aria needs:

More cowbell.