January 09, 2011

Button Up!

If you die in an elevator, be sure to push the "Up" button.

—Sam Levenson

During my past couple of trips to Vegas, I played a lot of hours at various Harrah's / Caesars Entertainment conglomerate poker rooms. Many of these rooms now permit a button straddle, which allows the button to post a blind raise ($5 at Bally's, $10 at Planet Hollywood, and any amount at Harrah's) which is live, meaning the straddler retains the right to raise. Action begins with the small blind, and proceeds with the button getting last action.

I happen to love the button straddle. Rather than a regular under the gun straddle, where the straddler plays the hand out of position, the button straddle lets the straddler play the hand with the best position. In other words, when on the button, a player can raise the effective stakes of the game for the one hand in which he holds the best position. Limped pots that check to the button can be stolen with greater value. Also, if a table is passive or fears big bets, a button straddler can build and steal pots with preflop raises combined with a strong c-bet or two-barrel bet. I find that many players at the 1/2 NLHE level don't mind an initial bet of $10-$12, but fear the big flop bet. Button straddling simply makes stealing from these types of players easier  and more lucrative.

However, my favorite reason for using the button straddle arises when one of the blinds on my button complains that they hate when I button straddle. Thank you, sir, for telling me what to do to make you play poorly! Also, players who whine about the button straddle pretty much telegraph their hand when they call a button straddle and/or a raise from a button straddle. Again, thank you sir for making it easy to play correctly against you!

Next time you get the chance, hit that button straddle and see the money roll in.

The button straddle in action.

January 07, 2011

I, Janus

 "Dogs at Cards" cake (image from here).

It's crAAKKer's first birthday! I'm not one for birthday cake, but I'll pass around some Templeton Rye ...

I began this blog a year ago with no real set-in-stone expectations. I knew it would be primarily poker-oriented (since that's my major hobby), but I didn't want to be limited by discussion forum stylistics. I wanted to be able to do some longer, more in-depth analysis of various issues, an ability I may have abused from time to time in these spaces (it's my blog and I'll prattle if I want). I also wanted to be able to branch off from poker into other issues of interest to me, which some of you may have found less than scintillating (it's my blog and I'll bore if I want). Mostly, though, I wanted a place to share some personal writing, and on that account, at least, things have worked out fairly well.

I installed Google Analytics early on to track site traffic, more out of curiosity than wanting to hit particular goals. At the one year mark, roughly 120 folks subscribe to my RSS feed, and there have been over 36,000 visits to crAAKKer by nearly 8,100 unique people from 87 countries. Not particularly huge numbers, but way above my modest expectations. So, thanks for reading, and I hope you keep coming back!

Also, digging into the data a bit more, a hat tip and sincerest thanks to my Top 10 referring blogs / websites:
  1. Poker Grump
  2. I Had Outs (#3 on its own!) / Dr. Clare's Electronicorium Emporium / Clareified
  3. All Vegas Poker
  4. Three Rivers Poker
  5. Two Plus Two Forums
  6. Pokerati
  7. Very Josie
  8. Life of a Poker Dealer
  9. Hardboiled Poker (Shamus)
  10. Lair of Lucypher
Each of the blogs in that list are ones in my RSS feed, and are entertaining or informative, and generally a good use of my limited casual reading time. I encourage you to give them all a look-see.

While we're data-mining, here are some of the zanier and more head-scratching search engine queries that led folks to crAAKKer:
  • Dutch minidress
  • Cheese PPA
  • Albarino telemarket
  • Bestiality blogspot (thus ensuring more hits from that search)
  • Dawn Summers birthday (people search for that?!?)
  • Hate Dawn Summers (I get that search)
  • How to kill a dealer (I get that one, too ...)
  • Eeyore sayings
  • Poker horror / Poker horror stories
  • Evil East Germans
  • Miniature stack of yaks
  • Antique dildos
  • Cat and sausage / Fun with cat and sausage
  • Mickelson 6'4" tall
  • Wife pokerslut photo
  • Fish sticks poker (Alrighty then ...)
Over the course of the past year, I covered a lot of topics, but here are a few of my favorite posts, and a few that my readers liked the most:


Humorous Poker Sessions:

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, "MadBrooklyn" World / "Dawn Summers" Does Des Moines

IMOP Memories:  The Beatdown at Bally's

Wine & Whine O' the Week (v. 1.11)—The crAAKKer in the Rye

How Phil Galfond Got His Nickname—A Poker "Just So Story"


Personal Posts / Social Issues / Random Stuff:

National "Whatever" Day

A Bad Beat Bakes My Noodle

Poker at the Gas 'n' Sip

The WSOP Ladies Event—A Modest Proposal

My Roots Are Showing—St. Matthew's Cemetery

The Absurdity of Poker


Poker Legal Issues:

Tilting at Poker Windmills

Why Poker Litigation FAILS

The Company Poker Keeps

The Emperor's New Sunglasses

Baxter v. United States—Landmark or Mirage?


However, I think my best contribution to the poker blogging world was probably my series of posts regarding the Rousso poker litigation in Washington state. Being a lawyer with a lot of appellate experience gave me a different viewpoint on the case than for most poker players, and I hope I was able to add something new to the discussion of Rousso in the poker community:

Poker's Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Year (Part 2)—Rousso v. State of Washington

Recapping Oral Arguments in Rousso v. State of Washington

Down Goes Rousso! Washington Supreme Court KOs Constitutional Challenge to Online Gambling Ban

Justice Sanders, In the Conservatory, With a Con Law Hornbook

PokerStars Sells Out Its Washington Players

The PPA Throws in the Towel on Rousso v. State of Washington


Hopefully y'all enjoyed at least some of my posts this past year; please post a comment to point out your favorites that I overlooked. Thanks for reading, and drop by occasionally to keep track of crAAKKer II—The Donkeys Strike Back.

D-Bag O' the Day (v.1.18)—Desperate Oregon Fan Seeks E-Mail Order Auburn Bride

OK, I suppose it's time to let Daniel Negreanu off the hook and bump him from the front page featured D-Bag position. It was a good run, sir, but it's time to move on.

Our new featured D-Bag is one Ryan Tharp, who came to my attention via Deadspin. Apparently, Mr. Tharp is a young Oregon football fan who—like Mr. Negreanu—loves those hilarious prop bets. From his post on Craigslist:

I, along with several buddies, will be celebrating the Duck victory in Vegas from January 11th-14th. During that extravaganza, I plan on taking in the entire Vegas experience, including marrying a stranger. If you are cute enough, spontaneous enough, and an all around cool chick....let's get hitched. Loser of the bet has to pay the annulment costs. So, if you are going to be in Vegas after the National Championship, believe in your Tigers, and want to have stories to tell your grandchildren (won't be mine) then shoot me an email...with a pic!

Auburn ladies, this could be your future ex-husband!

Now, I do have to give Mr. Tharp kudos for being the rare college student who can be a drunken lout and still put together a coherent, grammatically correct paragraph. Nonetheless the entire premise of his prop bet is offensive.

The sig other and I have been dating for over four years, and have been living together and sharing our lives for more than three of those years. In a year or so, we intend to get married, which prior to April 3, 2009, would have been impossible in Iowa. Three good judges just lost their jobs because they had the courage to, well, do their jobs and rule on an important constitutional issue the way they felt the law required. Even after our wedding, there will be many states which will not recognize our marital status, should we find ourselves relocating or even merely traveling through, potentially creating issues related to health care decisions and property rights, among hundreds of potential legal landmines.

Now, I know that there are strong feelings on both sides of the marriage equality debate, and I fully accept that folks of good will toward gays might nonetheless oppose marriage equality based on any of a number of strongly held beliefs. It's an issue worthy of rational discussion, and at the end of the day, we may simply have to agree to disagree on some fundamental underlying principles. But please, stop trying to tell me that letting gay couples who are in loving, committed relationships marry will somehow undermine or destroy the "sanctity of marriage".

Looking just at Vegas, Mr. Tharp has good company in Nicky Hilton and Todd Andrew Meister (marriage annulled after two months), Dennis Rodman and Carmen Electra (marriage annulled after nine days), Axl Rose and Erin Everly (divorced after three weeks), and perhaps most famously, Britney Spears and Jason Allen Alexander who got drunk, got married, and had it annulled, all in roughly 55 hours. Britney does know how to live it up in Vegas! Of course, let's also give a special "sanctity of marriage" award to Darva Conger and Rick Rockwell—Darva competed on the reality TV show "Who Wants to Marry a Millionaire?" for the right to wed a guy just for his (financial) assets. Oh yeah, that marriage lasted less than a month before it was annulled.

There's no reason to fear us gay folks destroying the sanctity of marriage. You straight folks are doing a bang-up job all on your own.

January 04, 2011

You Say "Intrastate" and I Say "Interstate"—
A Different Path to Online Poker Legalization?

You say either and I say eyether,
You say neither and I say nyther;
Either, eyether, neither, nyther,
Let's call the whole thing off!

You like potato and I like potahto,
You like tomato and I like tomahto;
Potato, potaeto, tomato, tomahto!
Let's call the whole thing off!


—George & Ira Gershwin, "Let's Call the Whole Thing Off" (1937).

During the past year, the hopes of the online poker community were repeatedly raised and dashed as Congressional efforts to pass a federal law legalizing—not to mention regulating and taxing—interstate online poker made significant new strides by passing a pro-poker bill out of the House Financial Services Committee, only to fall victim to the elections, then being resurrected in the lame-duck session by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (and his gaming industry donors), only to be killed—repeatedly—as part of a compromise over other pending legislation. With Republicans back in control of the House of Representatives, and anti-gambling advocate Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-AL) sitting in online poker ally Rep. Barney Frank's (D-MA) chair on the Financial Services Committee, the short-term prospects for meaningful Congressional action on the issue of online poker legalization are bleak.

All is not lost, however, when it comes to legislative action legalizing online poker. Several states are reportedly considering legislation to legalize intrastate online gaming or online poker, limited to the residents of that state, or of that state and people outside the United States. New Jersey is well along the path to legalizing online versions of all casino games permitted to be played in the state's brick and mortar casinos. Last year, California, Florida, Iowa, and the District of Columbia all considered similar legislation for legalized intrastate poker or gaming, and all of them are likely to revisit the issue. If New Jersey legalizes intrastate online gaming, Nevada seems a safe bet to follow suit so as not to jeopardize its position as the de facto center of the United States gaming industry.

Although any legislative steps toward the legalization of online poker should be welcome news to the online poker community, there are a number of potential drawbacks to a state-by-state approach which is predicated on legalizing only intrastate poker. Poker media insider F-Train recently laid out the potential pitfalls of an intrastate strategy:

On one level it's good to see the states trying to take the lead on this issue. But if history is a guide, it means the federal government will only be that much slower in developing national standards while it waits to see how things play out at the state level. It also gives anti-gambling legislators like Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) another argument against creating a national system.

If intra-state poker becomes the prevailing model, the industry will be split into multiple miniature player pools on a state-by-state basis, to the detriment of American poker players as a whole. And once Humpty Dumpty has shattered into 50 different pieces, good luck trying to put him back together. There *will* be differences in how online poker is run and regulated from state to state. Balancing and unifying all of those competing differences, and competing state interests, in national poker legislation will be exceedingly difficult.

Reid-bill detractors might point out that there would have been fragmentation under that bill as individual states opted in or opted out. While that's true, at least all of the opt-in states would have been playing in the same player pool with the same set of rules. Under state efforts, there's a different pool -- and most likely different rules -- for each state.

There is a legitimate fear that the balkanization of online poker among individual states with different regulations and isolated player pools would spell the doom of online poker for all but the most dedicated players in the larger states. Most states have a relatively small population and a concomitantly shallow online poker player base. In the smallest states, the legalization and regulation of online poker might not be cost effective for the state. In medium-sized states, online poker might be a viable industry for the state, but the resulting product might not be appealing to poker players if the effective player base is limited or the tax rate is onerous.

There is a path, however, by which intrastate poker might lead to the eventual legalization of interstate poker with a combined player pool and uniform national regulations and taxation schemes—the development of a national consortium of states which operate a joint online poker network, utilizing the multi-state lottery networks as a model.* Lotteries originated on a local or state level, but the biggest lotteries—Powerball and MegaMillions—were developed to offer bigger prize pools by increasing the potential customer base through creation of multi-state lottery consortiums. Of course, the states benefited from the increased lottery purchases made by customers drawn to the bigger prizes.

The advantages of a multi-state online poker consortium would be to increase the player pool base, with a resulting synergistic effect expanding the number of players and the amount wagered by those players. A multi-state consortium would also likely lead to uniform regulations, with many smaller states acquiescing in regulation by one of the industry leading states (likely New Jersey and/or Nevada). Taxation would also likely be more uniform, based on a proportional formula related to the deposits and/or rake by the players in each state. Additional states could elect to opt-in to the consortium; it should be noted that the Powerball and MegaMillions lotteries each started with a handful of participating states, yet today forty states offer both lotteries, and another three states offer at least one of the lotteries. Given the pervasive legalization of brick and mortar gambling in a majority of the states, a multi-state online poker consortium would likely attract new member states at a fairly rapid pace, as states scrambled for their share of the online gaming taxation bounty.

Now one might object that federal law would prohibit such a multi-state poker consortium. But the primary federal anti-gambling statute, the Wire Act, doesn't seem to preclude online poker conducted between residents of states where online poker is legal. Setting aside the legal issue of whether the Wire Act applies to bets or wagers unconnected to sports events, a safe harbor exception in the Wire Act states:

Nothing in this section shall be construed to prevent the transmission in interstate or foreign commerce of information for the use in news reporting of sporting events or contests, or for the transmission of information assisting in the placing of bets or wagers on a sporting event or contest from a State or foreign country where betting on the sporting event or contest is legal into a State or foreign country in which such betting is legal.

—18 U.S.C. § 1084(b) (emphasis added)

The plain language of the statute seems to permit residents of states where online poker is legal to play poker against each other without running afoul of the Wire Act (assuming the state statutes in question were drafted properly to permit such reciprocal play with residents of other states with legal online gaming). Other federal anti-gaming statutes—notably the Travel Act, RICO Act, and UIGEA—are similarly predicated on violations of state gambling laws, so presumably those statutes would not prohibit online poker if the game is played between residents of two or more states where each state had legalized reciprocal, intrastate online poker. However, when states initially legalize intrastate online poker, play will likely be restricted to players within the state. The importance of creating a multi-state consortium would be to establish a framework of uniform regulations to permit reciprocal, legal play between residents of different states which had enacted similar statutes to permit intrastate online poker.

Now, it's entirely possible I am overlooking an important federal law that would prohibit or restrict such multi-state online poker consortiums. However, once a few states legalize intrastate online poker, I suspect there will be sufficient demand to permit play between the residents of all states permitting intrastate online poker that some sort of federal statute would be passed to explicitly authorize multi-state online poker consortiums. Or, Congress might finally recognize that online poker is an established industry offering a new source of tax revenue, and pass a comprehensive federal regulatory scheme, preempting the balkanized intrastate system.

This approach of legalizing intrastate online poker in a handful of states, followed by the creation of a multi-state online poker consortium is inferior to enacting a comprehensive federal regulatory scheme. But the multi-state online poker consortium approach might be easier to achieve in the current political environment, and would be superior to a balkanized, purely intrastate, state-by-state legalization strategy. More importantly, however, if a multi-state online poker consortium could be created, it would likely either attract enough members to achieve de facto national online poker legalization (with a handful of outliers such as Utah and Hawaii), or it would spur some kind of federal legislative action.

When it comes to legalizing online poker, intrastate action in the short-term might well lead to interstate results in the long-term.

"Tomato, tomahto, poker, pokah ... let's call the whole thing off!"

(Image source)

---------------------------------------------------------------------

* ADDENDUM (4 January 2011):  One distinction between my proposal for a multi-state online poker consortium and the current multi-state lotteries is that the states would not be operating the online poker sites directly or indirectly. Instead, states wishing to join the multi-state online poker consortium would simply enact legislation agreeing to the terms of belonging to the consortium, and permitting their residents to play against residents of other states in the consortium. Independent online poker sites would be licensed by one or more states in the consortium, and would be permitted to offer poker to residents of all states belonging to the consortium. This set up would be somewhat analogous to current wine shipping reciprocity laws, in which states permit out-of-state wineries to ship to their residents on the same terms as are offered by the wineries' home state. As stated by the Wine Institute,  "In its simplest form, a reciprocal law says 'a winery in your state can ship to a consumer in my state, only if a winery in my state can ship to a consumer in your state.'" Applied to online poker, states in a consortium would agree to permit residents of other states to play against its residents, only if residents of the other state enjoyed the reciprocal privilege.

Avoiding a Titanic Poker Leak

But it’s a totally different story in a big game. If I raise it $3,000 or $4,000 and the other guy and I have a lot of chips on the table, he’ll be a little more hesitant about raising me now because he knows there’s a very good chance I’ll play back. The guys I play with know that when I put my children out there, I don’t like to let them drown.

—Doyle Brunson, Super/System2, p. 394

A few days ago, I played a cash game session at the Meadows ATM. During the game, I saw an example of what is probably among the top five poker leaks, at least among recreational players—calling with a hand you are fairly sure is behind solely because of the amount of money already invested in the pot.

The hand went roughly like this. There was a straddle, and just about everyone in the room limped into the pot. Straddler raised to $24, and there were four callers. The flop came out highly coordinated—something like 9h8h8d. Straddler led out for $75, and got two callers. The turn was the Jh. Straddler led out for $125, with both players immediately going all-in for ~$800 more and ~$100 more. Now the big stack had never once shown down less than the second nuts when putting big money in the pot, while the other player was an uber-tight older nit. Straddler thought a minute, then said, "Well, I've already put most of my money in the pot, I have to call," and called for his last $150. Sure enough, the big stack had 98 for the flopped boat, while the old nit had the nut flush. The boat held up for another monsterpotten to the big stack. Straddler claimed to have held AhAd, and left after busting on the hand.

Now the big leak in this hand is the Straddler's thought process. He was fixated on the size of the pot and the fact he had committed a lot of his chips to the pot. The problem is that this fixation on the pot size and prior action blinded him to the reality that he was likely either drawing thin or dead. In economics terms, the money already committed to the pot is regarded as a sunk cost. A sunk cost is essentially a prior expenditure that cannot be recovered. For example, a developer decides to build a casino on the Las Vegas Strip. Building commences, and the project is 50% completed, but then the economy tanks. The projections for income from gambling, conventions, shopping, and other resort activities are no longer valid and must be revised. The new figures show that the projected income stream from the completed casino will not meet the additional expenses needed for completing and opening the casino; in other words, the project cannot be finished at a profit. A rational developer would abandon the project, despite having already invested tens or hundreds of millions into the project. The money invested prior to the decision point is irrelevant to the decision regarding whether to complete or abandon the project. If the additional investment needed to complete the project will not result in a profitable venture, then there is no point in making the additional investment.

Turning back to poker, the amount you personally have invested in a pot is never a valid consideration governing your future play in the hand. Either you have correct odds to call vs. your opponents' range(s), or you don't. The amount you have "invested" or put in the pot up to the decision point is irrelevant; it is a sunk cost. The past is past, and that money is now part of the pot; it is no longer "your" money or "your" investment. Reasoning that you "have to call because you already put in $X" or "it's an easy fold because you've only invested $Y" is a major leak. A smart poker player will look only at the total pot versus the wager he is facing (and future implied wagers, where relevant) when making his decision. 

The problem is that many recreational poker players, because they are loss-averse, will improperly factor the sunk cost of their prior wagers into their decision making process. These players often improperly invoke the concept of being "pot-committed" to justify their ultimate decision to make a bad call. Let's look at an example. You flop a monster draw with QJs, but get to the river and have Queen-high after missing your draws (let's ignore your ineptitude in failing to get all-in on the flop). The river paired the board, so you decide to take a stab at the $500 pot, betting $300. Your opponent, a rock, goes all-in for $400. It's $100 to call into a pot of $1,200. You're getting 12:1 on the last call, but is your hand ever good here, let alone one out of every thirteen hands? Are you truly pot-committed here? Calling in these situations is a terrible leak, yet many recreational players make that last call because they're fixated on all the money they've already put into the pot.

There are circumstances where loose calls with marginal hands are warranted, but those loose calls must be justified by relevant considerations: your opponent's likely range based on his betting line and your reads, coupled with your knowledge of your opponent's playing style (particularly whether he is prone to bluffing or making value bets with marginal hands). Basing your decision to make a loose call on the fact that you've already put a lot of money into the pot is throwing good money after bad. Once you've paid enough money to know you're beat, why voluntarily pay even more for the privilege of losing the pot? Making a habit of making these bad loose calls will eventually sink your bankroll.

"Don’t make loose calls and hopeless bets to avoid giving up on the pot. It’s okay to leave your kids out there sometimes. Maybe they have soccer practice today."

—Schmidt & Hoppe, "Don't Listen to Phil Hellmuth", p. 112


If you're sunk, it's silly to go down with the ship.

(Image source).