The Ironman Prop Betteth

As you may recall, Ironman of Poker VI ("IMOP") is less than 50 hours away from its official kickoff. Cruise director Santa Claus has released the official prop betting sheet, which is seriously streamlined, the better to speed his last minute hungover scorekeeping chores. Still, part of me misses the good ol' days of Byzantine scoring sheets that required more recounts than a Florida election, where one Ironman could be declared victor during the final breakfast at the Grand Lux in Venetian, another take the title at the Allegiant Air gate, and yet another be named ultimate champion on the ground in Iowa.

Taking a look at the official prop bets, there are a few obvious sucker bets:

• Sahara at 162/1 for last to go to sleep is akin to a preseason wager that the Lions will win the Super Bowl. Sahara is notorious for his vampiric persona, and has never been awake in five IMOPs to see the first sunrise.
• Any high hand winner or best losing hand "winner" at 2/1 odds is a bad bet. High hands / big hands are essentially random events with little connection to style of play (other than that maniacs who play more hands have slightly better odds of being involved in a big hand). Might as well take 4/1 on any random schmo if you play this prop.

As for value bets, here's my analysis:

• Sahara making a final table is almost guaranteed money, given his online poker skillz (assuming he avoids me, natch). But there's more value in betting on an Ironman winning a high hand jackpot, or being called a donkey, which are both nearly guaranteed.
• Barbie getting felted playing the signature hand ("the Grump" this year) is nearly guaranteed. But there's more value in the nearly guaranteed wager on Bonnie losing something valued over $5 (frankly, this should've been set at over $50 to be sporting).
• Although it's been a few years since the Beatdown at Bally's, given our crew is composed of 12 snarky, drunken idiots with a penchant for taunting Euros and trust fund babies, there would seem to be good value at 20/1 in betting on an Ironman being in a physical confrontation.

In true Ironman fashion, the taunting and prop betting is in full preseason form. Today, Fat Jesus sent out an important reminder to the Ironmen to avoid being arrested prior to arriving in Vegas:

T-Minus 3,346 until wheels up out of Des Moines for IMOP 6...

We pause this countdown for the following public service announcement:

Code of Federal Regulations Sec. 121.575 — Alcoholic beverages.

(a) No person may drink any alcoholic beverage aboard an aircraft unless the certificate holder operating the aircraft has served that beverage to him.

(b) No certificate holder may serve any alcoholic beverage to any person aboard any of its aircraft who—

(1) Appears to be intoxicated;
(2) Is escorting a person or being escorted in accordance with 49 CFR 1544.221; or
(3) Has a deadly or dangerous weapon accessible to him while aboard the aircraft in accordance with 49 CFR 1544.219, 1544.221, or 1544.223.

(c) No certificate holder may allow any person to board any of its aircraft if that person appears to be intoxicated.

(d) Each certificate holder shall, within five days after the incident, report to the Administrator the refusal of any person to comply with paragraph (a) of this section, or of any disturbance caused by a person who appears to be intoxicated aboard any of its aircraft.

Thank you, we now continue with the countdown...3,343 minutes.

Fat Jesus

Perhaps the Ironman most in need of this reminder, Colt, replied:

Here is what I read:

Code of Federal Regulations Sec. 121.575 — Alcoholic beverages.

(a) Don’t show the stewardess your mini bottles of alcohol.

(b) If you do – you’re dumb……in accordance with Man-Law CFR 5554.221.

Here's hoping all the Ironmen avoid any hit to their bankrolls from the bail bond leak.

Finally, today Ironman Barbie and I engaged in a best of seven prop bet matchup in Words With Friends, the iPhone version of Scrabble. The stakes were high—steak dinner at STK, the trendy steakhouse in the swanky new Vegas Cosmopolitan resort. We each won one blowout, but the remaining five games went to the last few tiles. After Barbie and his alligator blood pulled off a miracle finish with a triple score "QI" in Game 6, it all came down to Game 7, as any good rivalry should. With all the tiles out, Barbie played "WANE" to take a slim but seemingly insurmountable 19 point lead. Yet, I had one last trick up my sleeve. Channeling my inner Tarvis Williams, I found a stunning 70 point play for the improbable victory:

I'm thinking a medium rare porterhouse with black truffles and chimichurri sauce, with sides of creamed spinach and mac & cheese. Oh, and break out the wine list, baby! Grange needs a good Shiraz!

I can't wait for Wednesday!