Showing posts with label Statistical Variance Box (SVB). Show all posts
Showing posts with label Statistical Variance Box (SVB). Show all posts

May 28, 2012

The Price Is Wrong at the Meadows

Yesterday I played a late afternoon holiday poker session at the Meadows ATM. Games were rather sparse when I arrived mid-afternoon, with a couple of tables from the noon tourney still running, along with two tables of $1/$2 NLHE. As additional tourney players busted, some rotated into cash games, allowing some of the regulars to launch a $1/$2 Pot Limit HOE cash game. [FN1]  Despite the siren song of the Gamboool game, I stayed at the NLHE game because there were a few fishy tourist types, and I was waiting for the arrival of a vacationing blogosphere-Twitterverse friend, Jason, a degen geneticist from New Jersey (say that three times fast). I managed a $300 profit before we got five-handed with small stacks in play, so I gave in to temptation and moved to the HOE game just as Jason arrived to also join the degeneracy.

The game played rather nitty, with lots of limped or one-raise pots getting six to nine players to the flop. Preflop 3-bets were as rare as WSOP players who get knocked out without a bad beat. Still, there were numerous hands in the Omaha and Omaha8 rounds with multi-way all-ins, often with marginal draws. I wish I could say I cleaned up in the game, but some #runbad and some #playbad left me down for the session. Still, it was entertaining, since most of the table were friendly and talkative. I spent the session sitting next to a nice young gal (and solid player) @chelmc23, who is a regular in many of the Omaha games at the Meadows. We have played together often, so we gossiped a bit. At one point after witnessing a weird runner-runner suckout in a big Omaha pot, this exchange occurred:

Me:  "Wow, that's brutal."

Chelmc23:  "I had a worse beat in the Friday Omaha game."

Me:  "The 6/12 high-low?" [Note: A group of older folks have had a long-running regular Omaha8 game every Friday morning at the Meadows, often getting two tables. They play it $6/$12 limit, with a half-kill to $10/$20 following scoop pots of $60 or more.]

Chelmc23:  "Yeah. But I don't want to bore you with a bad beat story."

Me:  "Why don't you save it for the Hold 'Em round?"

Chelmc23:  "Good idea."

So, new rule: Bad beat stories can be told to liven up the boring rounds of a mixed game. The rule should also apply to Triple Draw and Stud games—except for Razz, of course, where merely playing is a bad beat.

I did win one entertaining hand of note. In a Gamboool8 round, I had some trashy hand in the big blind, something like K-J-9-7. It limped around, so I got to see a flop of 9-9-9. Donkey Kong! I checked the flop, got a loose player to bet it, a nitty lady to call, then I raised to $30, and they both called. Turn was ... oh who cares. I led out for $40, loose guy thought then folded, but the lady called. River was another card of no consequence. I bet $50, the lady sighed, pushed out the call, and said "Show me your 9". Instead, I rolled over my hand to claim the nice pot.

Anyway, the point of this post was to discuss the problems dealers can encounter when tracking pot size for betting purposes. The concept of pot limit betting can be tough for poker players used to the rigid structure of limit games and the anything-goes approach to no-limit games. Instead of simply pulling in bets each round, dealers have to track the pot size as players routinely simply bet by saying "Pot!" and then looking to the dealer to state the bet size for them. Now, as long as the dealer knows the pot size, and players bet, call, and raise in pot-sized increments, keeping track of the pot is simple arithmetic. For example, on one flop, a player bet pot. The dealer stated "$63". One player called, then the next player raised pot. The dealer froze for a moment, then started saying, "$280 ... $280 ..." which was clearly too high. I was in the 10 Seat, and quietly told the dealer, "It's $252 plus his $63 call, so ... $315 total", which another player also echoed. This case was easy because the raiser first had to call the $63 bet, then match the total in the pot for a raise of $252 ($63 x 4—preflop pot amount, pot bet, call, and call by reraiser). A more effective technique for thinking about this kind of pure pot betting and pot raising is to take four times the original pot bet size, then add another pot bet for each caller between original bettor and the pot reraiser to arrive at the total bet size for the pot reraiser (here, 4 x $63, plus 1 x $63, or 5 x $63 = $315; had there been a second caller, then simply make it 4 x $63, plus 2 x $63, or 6 x $63 = $378). Since the original bet amount was under $70, I knew the raise couldn't possibly be another $280 or more like the dealer thought. [FN2]

Later in the session, another weird pot-counting situation came up when a young lady dealer I had never seen before rotated into our game. There was a preflop raise to $10 with seven callers. I was out of the hand and not paying that close of attention. The dealer put out the flop, and the lady in Seat 1 put out a $15 bet that I couldn't see. Loose guy in Seat 5 raised pot, and the dealer said, "$115". Guy in Seat 8 then raised pot. Dealer said, "$300 more." Thinking that the $115 bet by Seat 5 was the first action on the round, I said to the dealer, "Shouldn't it be $345 more?" Dealer pointed to the Seat 1 bet of $15, and said, "It's $300". Seat 1 folded as I said, "Well, it can't be $300." Seat 5 called, and the dealer put out the turn card, then turned to me and quite tersely said, "It was $70 preflop, her $15, then his $115, so it's $300 more." I hadn't worked out the math by that moment, but I knew that $300 couldn't possibly be the correct raise amount (for one thing, with three players making bets ending in $5 before the pot raise, math says the raise amount had to end in a five, not a zero). But, I wasn't in the hand, the two remaining players had no trouble shipping the remaining $350 or so in Seat 8's stack (Seat 5 had him well-covered), so I simply shut the heck up. But I did take out my iPhone to write a note with the correct math to use as the basis for this post:

Let's start on the flop. A bet of $15, then a pot raise to $115 total means that the $15 bet plus a $15 call totals $30 on top of the pot. Since the raise was $100 more (for a total bet of $115), the preflop pot had to have been $70: $100-$15-$15=$70. The $70 original pot size checks with preflop action of seven players calling $10 each. So far so good.

Now, the next pot raiser must first call the $115 pending bet before his pot raise is calculated. So, $115 (pending bet by Seat 5) + $115 (call by Seat 8) + $15 (Seat 1 bet) + $70 (preflop bet) = $315 total pot which is theadditional raise amount for Seat 8.

So, the dealer was wrong as I knew, but I was also wrong as she knew. Math failure all around (though my error was based on not seeing the original $15 bet). Using The Price Is Right rules—closest to the correct amount without going over—I would normally give the dealer the win here. But, the dealer is being paid to keep track of the correct pot size. Being off $15 might not seem like a big deal, but in a multi-way pot where small amounts get magnified quickly, it can mean the difference between a player being able to call or reraise, or determine whether a player is able to get his stack in the middle on the turn. At a minimum, if a player questions the pot size in a pot limit game, a dealer should take a moment to confirm his or her math.



"The price is wrong, B#tch!"

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[FN1] For my less experienced readers, HOE is a mixed game with alternating rounds of Hold 'Em, Omaha (high only), and Omaha Eight or Better (high/low split pot game with the low hand must be 8-high or lower to qualify).

[FN2] As I noted in a prior post on PLG in Vegas, some casinos elect to track the pot in $5 increments, with odd dollars rounded up to the next $5. Using only $5 increments, particularly postflop, makes the pot-tracking and pot-raising calculations much easier for dealers and players alike. There is some variation in how the $5 increment policy is implemented:
The Venetian PLG game has $1/$2 blinds, which are counted as $5 for pot-calculation purposes, with a $5 bring-in (if you call preflop, it's $5; first raise without a limp is to $15). The Aria PLG game has $1/$3 blinds, which are counted as $3 for preflop action, with post-flop action in $5 increments (first raise without a limp is to $12).

August 30, 2010

Master of Yaks

End of passion play, crumbling away,
I'm your source of self-destruction.
Veins that pump with fear, sucking dark is clear,
Leading on your death's construction.

Taste me you will see,
More is all you need.
Dedicated to
How I'm killing you.

Come crawling faster.
Obey your Master.
Your life burns faster.
Obey your Master.
Master!

Master of Puppets I'm pulling your strings,
Twisting your mind and smashing your dreams.
Blinded by me, you can't see a thing.
Just call my name, 'cause I'll hear you scream.
Master!
Master!

—"Master of Puppets", by Metallica

I've long been a huge Metallica fan, and have been to more of their concerts (five) than any other band.  I first got hooked when their first video, for "One", debuted during my early college days.  Of course, this led me to explore their earlier albums, and what song is more quintessentially Metallica than "Master of Puppets"?  I suppose some would argue for the ubiquitous "Enter Sandman", but in my view, "Sad But True" was the best song off the Black Album.  Of course, if we're talking best Metallica song, I might lean toward "Fade to Black" off Ride the Lightning or "Sanitarium" off Master of Puppets.  If you need a song to rock out to when angry, to chill out with when down, or to pump you up on a long run, Metallica has plenty of music that will fit the bill.

In any event, the classic Metallica song "Master of Puppets" might as well be called "The Call of the Yaks" considering the feelings of anger and despair that often accompany playing pocket Yaks.  As the saying goes, "There are three ways to play pocket Jacks; all of them wrong."  Frankly, I've probably found more than three ways to misplay Yaks over the years, often using three misplays in a single session.  But yesterday, at the Meadows, I finally discovered how to play Yaks.  Yes, I became the Master of Yaks.

I went to the Meadows ATM for a short session, hoping to find good action after the noon tournament.  While waiting for a spot to open, I watched the final table of the tourney.  Down to the final three players, the blinds were 5K/10K, and the chip stacks were 165K, 5K, and 5K.  Yes, the chip leader, Lori, had a 33:1:1 chip lead, with the small blind having a single 5K chip merely because he was rounded up during the chip race off that occurred when they went to three-handed play.  The two short stacks were immediately all-in, then heads up play began.  Lori got her money in as a huge favorite but lost with Q4s vs. 54o, Q8 vs. 85, and KQ vs. 62.  In the first two hands, her opponent rivered a 5, while in the third hand, he flopped a duck.  Finally, on Hand #4 of heads up, with the stacks nearly equal (95K to 80K), Lori ran her AcQc into 66, and despite not hitting a pair, a flush, or a straight, still won the tourney after finding a double-paired board to counterfeit the pocket 6s:  K-T-T-K-4.  Amazing showing by Lori, one of the nicest regulars at the Meadows, albeit a tough player.

About a half hour later, I finally get a spot on one of the 1/2 NLHE tables.  I posted in behind the button.  Then, three hands later, there is a straddle and a call to me in middle position.  I find Commie Yaks, and decide to limp, expecting a raise from the straddler, and planning to reraise.  Instead, the player on my left pops it to $17.  Surprise!  Even more surprising, there were five callers to me.  Hmmmm, repop squeeze play?  Call and set mine?  The initial raiser had a pretty tight range for that raise, say {AA-99, AK, AQs}, so I wasn't thrilled about maybe walking into a big hand.  Also, there were a couple of gamblers among the callers, so who knows if a squeeze play would work?  I finally opted to set mine, to lower my risk of a big hit to my stack, while still fairly certain to get paid off big if I hit the flop. 

Alrighty then, seven of us see the flop with ~$120 already in the pot.  The flop came out Js-7c-6c.  Donkey Kong!  It checked to me, and I checked as well, certain there would be a bet.  Sure enough, the preflop raiser made it $35 to go, and there were two callers to me.  The pot was getting huge, and the board was draw heavy, so I just went ahead and pushed for ~$275 total.  The preflop raiser agonized, then called, the next two guys folded, and the final guy called.  The turn was the Kh.  Preflop raiser pushed all-in for another $100, and seemed really happy.  Ruh roh, Rooby!  Did someone just hit a bigger set?  Inquiring minds want to know!  The river was a non-club Ten.  Groovy, AcQc just got there.  How lovely.  But no, preflop raiser rolls over AcKc, while the other guy shows ... 54 offsuit?!?!   Pac Man!  The pot was ~$980 to me, giving me a triple up on my first orbit.

And that, dear readers, is how to play Yaks.

Yak with Mt. Everest in background (image source).

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POSTSCRIPT:  OK, in the interests of full disclosure, I did donk back some of the chips, mostly on one hand where a table maniac and I each flopped Kings up, only he had the better second pair.  I also got run down in a couple of hands, but still carted home a full buy-in profit. 

Unfortunately, I didn't play nearly as well Friday night in a home game with, among others, Ironman Mr. Chow, who channeled his inner crasian to run down my KK with QTo, flopping J-9-x, and turning his six-outer to the straight, at which point I promptly spewed my entire stack to him drawing dead.  Eh, maybe I'll make Cowboys the next hand I master.  I can see it now—Master of Cowboys—a blended sequel to Rounders and Brokeback Mountain.  There will need to be a Tom Dwan cameo, obviously, and maybe an appearance by Zed and the Gimp ...

August 21, 2010

Santa Claus Steals Candy from Babies

Last night, Ironman of Poker (IMOP) cruise director and Templeton Rye hunter Santa Claus was in town for business, so we met up for an after work session of $1/$2 NLHE at the Meadows ATM.  Now Thursday evening action is usually excellent, as there is a tournament at 7:00 p.m. that is generally well-attended, along with a regular $5/$5 mix "big game" that brings out all the degenerates.  The room was busy when we arrived around 5:00 p.m., but we got into a game after a short wait.  Management, however, gets an "F" in logistics for failing to schedule enough dealers.  The big mix game was full with a list, the $2/$5 list was 20 deep, and the $1/$2 list was 10 deep, but no tables could be opened because the dealers were already "locked in" and no additional dealers were scheduled to arrive to open new tables until 6:00 p.m.  Oh well, not my problem!

The game was initially rather uneventful, other than Santa and I needling each other.  Most of the players were fairly tight, and short-stacked, making the game unsuitable for my usual crAAKKer tactics.  I started having flashbacks to the horrors of my last session at the 'Shoe, where I proved the old adage about blood and rocks.  To make matters worse, we had two obnoxious players in the game—one was a crazy looking dude who tried to bully the table and complained every time he got slapped down, and a "poker professor" who had to deeply analyze each and every hand like a skinny and non-funny version of John Madden. 

Crazy dude bullied his way to a $1,000 stack, then promptly gacked it all back and left the table whining about how badly we all played.  For all his self-proclaimed poker smarts, the professor found himself rebuying after spewing chips making a number of rather questionable plays.  By 10:00 p.m., our table had dropped to nitty five-handed play.  Santa and I had each taken a decent chunk of chips off of crazy dude during his supernova, so we were debating racking up our profits (about a buy-in each) and heading to my place to enjoy some pizza and Templeton Rye when we heard the best sound in the poker universe—loud, drunken laughter.

Three guys in golf attire were sent to our table.  Turns out they had been golfing in a charity event all day, and had been "boozing it up since noon".  Excellent.  Two of them ("Andy" and "Billy") were regulars, and the third ("Chip") I have seen on occasion.  A guy already at the table ("Eddie") was also a friend of the crew.  As soon as the crew sat down, the game became a "strap on your seatbelts, keep your hands in the car" roller coaster ride.  The usual hand went down something like this:
  • Andy or Billy would raise to $30, often blind.
  • Other players would call.
  • Occasionally, Andy or Billy would reraise to $100 to steal the pot preflop.
  • If the hand made it to the flop, Andy or Billy would bet $100-$200 to try to take it down right there.
  • If a non-crew member made it to the flop and seemed interested in the flop, Andy or Billy would call them down to the river to try to knock the player out.
Now, at this point, the game becomes quite easy.  In fact, it was so easy Santa went to the bar to get a drink, realizing there would be no more tough decisions the rest of the night.  Essentially, Santa and I had position on the entire crew, and we simply sat back and waited for premium hands.  Then, we would limp-reraise preflop, and bet big on flops we hit, knowing we were going to be way ahead of the crew's range.  No need for a degree in astrophysics to play this game!

My strategy started off rather poorly, when I ran my 99 into Billy's TT, helping him build up a $1,500 stack.  Then, a weird hand happened that gave Santa and me an IMOP flashback.  Billy was in seat 1, next to the dealer.  He was involved in a big pot, and was facing a big river bet when he slid his cards forward.  The dealer mucked the hand, and started to push the pot.  Suddenly, Billy went absolutely nuts, screaming, "I had King-Ten of spades!  I f--king had King-Ten of f--king spades!"  If true, he would've turned the nut straight and rivered the second nut flush (and I fully believe he in fact had the King-Ten of f--ing spades).  But it looked to me and even his friends that Billy had mucked his hand.  The floor came over, ruled his hand dead, and Billy kept pacing around, screaming about his "King-Ten of f--king spades!" and even tried to dig his hand out of the muck.  The floor, Brandon, did a great job of keeping things calm while standing his ground.  Billy kept arguing, then suddenly blurted out, "Awww, how can I be mad when Brandon is smiling at me so cute?"  His buddy Chip dryly observed, "Billy gets a little gay when he's drunk."  Kudos to Brandon for not only not kicking Billy out, but also getting Billy to calm down, then running interference with the gaggle of security guards who had come into the room to investigate "the disturbance".  Trust me, if Billy had gone home, his buddies—and their cash—would have gone with him.  Instead, the house, the dealers, and the players all kept making money, which is a wonderful thing.

Billy was drunk enough he sometimes had trouble keeping focused on the action, and since he was near me, I would help keep the action flowing by reminding him when it was his turn to act, which led to this exchange that had me laughing:

Me:  "It's $30."

Billy:  "Who raised it?"  [ummm, the same guy who's raised it the past 30 hands?]

Me:  [pointing to Andy"Your best buddy down there."

Billy:  "Oh no, he's not my best friend!"  [points at Eddie"He's my best friend, ever!  I was even best man in his wedding!"

[pause]

Billy:  "Well, it was his first wedding, before the divorce." 

Billy:  [turns to Eddie"Sorry dude!"

Now many players fear or are annoyed by maniacs, who admittedly do upset the game.  But they serve a very useful purpose—they pry chips away from rocks and redistribute them to the table.  Case in point was an old guy in seat 10 who had bought in for $100, played one hand every hour, and always had a top five hand when he played.  Old Guy had built up a $600 stack, but in the course of two hands, Billy and Andy took it all.  The big hand was when Andy raised to $30 preflop, Old Guy reraised to $100, Andy shrugged and called.  Flop was all low rags.  Old Guy bet $100, Andy called.  Turn was a low blank, Old Guy shoved for about $200, Andy snap called, having turned two pair with 74o.  Old Guy rolls Aces, natch, and fails to catch up.  God bless the maniacs!

Billy quickly demonstrated the life cycle of the drunk maniac—build a big stack with improbable junk hands, get slapped upside the head by math, bleed all the chips back, rebuy, gack those chips off, hit the ATM, lather, rinse, repeat.  Billy probably pumped four buy-ins into the game, then borrowed another two buy-ins from Andy and Chip.  Andy put four buy-ins on the table before starting to build a monster stack, mostly at the expense of Billy and Chip.  By the end of the session, the action at our table was easily heavier than the $2/$5 NLHE or the $5/$5 "big game", with many pots running over $500, and multi-player all-ins occurring a couple of times per orbit.  As for Santa and me, we simply collected our share of the maniac tax, picking big hands to play, waiting for favorable flops, then punishing the maniacs with check-calls and value bets.  Taking down a limped pot with a huge limp-reraise squeeze play would generally net $100+ in profit, which was merely an appetizer for the big pots where Andy or Billy would see a flop.  I won three monsterpotten with flopped trips, while Santa was a little more conventional, using Kings, Yaks, and a couple of AK hands for the bulk of his profit.  Speaking of profit, while the drunk crew provided plenty of entertainment, the real fun in poker is in stacking chips from monster pots.  As you can tell, we had a blast!

My stack about an hour before leaving.  By the time I cashed out,
I had added three black chips to the mix.  Note the lucky
"Godfather" chips in the lower left; it was a full stack by cash out!

Santa's stack about an hour before cash out.  Santa parlayed Kings
into an additional four pillars of the pyramid before cashing out.
(That's my arm on the right side of the picture, guarding my stack
against Santa's patented stack stealing swoop maneuver.)

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ADDENDUM (21 August 2010):  I forgot one of the sickest beats of the night.  Andy blind raised preflop to $30, Billy reraised to $100, and Andy called.  Flop was A-A-2.  Andy checked, Billy bet, Andy raised, Billy pushed, and Andy called.  Andy asks Billy, "Do you have an Ace?"  Billy nods "yes" and rolls AK.  Board runs out, and Andy finally rolls over ... pocket ducks for the flopped boat!  Hilarity ensued ...

August 19, 2010

The 'Shoe Is Too Tight

"Tight.  Too ... tight."

—Ironman Bonnie, intoxicated and trapped in the Venetian's expertly made bed during IMOP-III

I had a court hearing in Council Bluffs on Monday, so on the way home I made a quick pit stop at the Horseshoe for a session of $1/$3 NLHE.  The 'Shoe was in full preparation mode for the upcoming WSOP Circuit Event, set to kick off today in its newly revamped format, with lower buy-in main events, regional championships, and a WSOP bracelet freeroll tournament.  Our table was the first to get to use the official WSOP dealer buttons, which were the old plain white dealer buttons with Miller Lite decals pasted on both sides.  Classy.

Although I only played for about four hours, the session was quite remarkable because of the tightness of play.  Four or five players might limp in or call a raise to $6-$8 (in a $1/$3 game, mind you), but preflop raises over $10 rarely got callers, and usually only one caller.  Limping with AK, KK, QQ, JJ was endemic to the point of being standard.  Postflop was even worse.  Top pair was a check-calling hand, overpairs would bet 1/4 pot at most, and big hands (e.g., two pair, sets, flushes) would massively overbet the flop.  This game made the proverbial "rock garden" look like a Euro-maniac spewfest.  Frankly, it would have been less of a miracle for an actual granite boulder to ship some chips into a big pot than some of these rocks.

"Oh that's right, Private Pyle, don't make any f--king effort to get to the top of the f--king obstacle.  If God would have wanted you up there he would have miracled your ass up there by now, wouldn't he?"

—Gunnery Sergeant Hartman (R. Lee Ermey) in "Full Metal Jacket"

In case you think I'm exaggerating, let me give you some examples:
  • I raise to $10 with TT in the big blind.  Two callers.  Flop is T-T-2 with two clubs.  Yahtzee!  I bet $15, my standard c-bet.  Two snap-folds.
  • I limp with 55, as do four others.  Flops is 9-9-5.  Yahtzee!  It checks around.  Turn is an Ace.  Someone bets $5, folds to me, I raise to $15, folds around.
  • I limp with 97 on the button.  Flop is 6-9-T.  Checks around.  Turn is another 9, putting a flush draw on board.  Yahtzee.  Checks to me, I bet $10, get one caller.  River is a 7, no flush possible.  Yahtzee?  Checks to me, I bet $15, get flat called by ... J8 sooted, who never bet or raised with the OESD and backdoor flush draw, and check-called with the nut straight on the river.
  • I flopped sets of 3s and 6s, no action when the flop checks through, and folds around when I bet the turn with big cards on board.
  • I play J3s for a raise on the button, get two callers.  Flop is J-5-3.  Checks to me, I bet $10, get one caller.  Turn is another 3.  Altogether now, "Yahtzee!"  Check-check.  River is a Ten.  Checks to me, I bet $20, he thinks and folds ... KJ!
  • I play 76s, flop is Q-5-8 for the OESD.  Flop is a 1/4 pot bet, I call.  Turn is an Ace.  Check-check.  River is a 4.  Yacht Zee.  He checks, I bet around 1/2 pot, he thinks forever before finally calling with ... AQ.
  • I play QcTc in the BB for a limp.  Flop is Qd-Td-8c.  Checks through.  Turn is Ts.  Yaht-frickin'-zee.  I bet $5, get two callers.  River is the 7d.  I bet 1/2 pot, one snap-fold, the other guy thinks, then folds 9d8d!
Maybe I'm incredibly easy to read at the table.  Maybe the cards were marked.  Maybe I was playing with a bunch of almond brokers* in town for the nut peddling convention.  Maybe I was playing at a table of guys whose poker minds have been permanently destroyed by a series of online bad beats.  All I know is that, despite all the big hands, I made a whopping $52 profit from poker.

Now, I did lose two decent-sized pots when I flopped altos dos pairs against the bajo set, and a couple of hands later flopped bajos dos pairs against the alto set.  But they were both fairly short-stacked, so my big losses were under $250 total.  On the other hand, I won a couple of decent pots when crAAKKing aces (details at 11:00, or in a future post).  In fairness, then, I probably made about $250 from all my big hands, probably a sixth of what I would normally expect to make when running that hot. 

I did also get a high hand jackpot for my quad tens.  The HHJs at the 'Shoe are progressive by rank, and can only be hit once per day.  Also, the straight flushes are separated by suit as well as rank, so the jackpot drop gets pretty chopped up, and the HHJs grow slowly.  Typically, quads pay $20-$40 when hit.  But, I was lucky that Tens were on top of the list, and I hit it about a half hour after the HHJs were bumped up from the previous day's jackpot drop, paying me $164 (net $150 after dealer tip).  So, I still finished the session with a nice profit, but I feel like I squandered a great SVB streak.

Table 8 at the Horseshoe.

(Image from here).

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* Originally wrote this as "almond salesmen", but realized that the term is sexist.  So, the officially recognized term going forward will be "almond brokers".  At crAAKKer, we take our political correctness as seriously as our starting hand selection.

July 17, 2010

Hit By a Horseshoe

This week, I traveled back to Nebraska for my grandmother's funeral (she was 94 and had her full mental wits about her until the pain meds took over the last week or two, so it was about as good a way for someone to go as is possible).  On the way back to Iowa, I stopped in at the Horseshoe casino in Council Bluffs (just across the border from Omaha, for those deficient in Midwestern geography).  As I've discussed previously, this is the nicest room in the state, but it has some quirky rules that are unique in the state.  On a Friday morning, there was a full 2/5 NLHE game with a list, three 1/3 NLHE games, and a 3/6 LHE game.  I got into one of the 1/3 NL games, as my time was short and I didn't want to wait for the 2/5 NL game.  Perhaps I should've waited.

I started off fairly well, building my $200 buy-in (max. for the game) into a $450 stack, mostly by snapping KK with set of Queens, and picking off three pretty obvious bluffs.  The game was playing pretty tight, so a lot of small pot stealing was going on while the nits waited for big hands.  However, the table was friendly and joking around a lot, so it was that rarest of events—an enjoyable nit-fest.  Eventually, a couple of us got the table loosened up to the point that $15 was routinely called in 3-5 spots, making the inevitable flop steal even more lucrative.  Just another service provided by your friendly crAAKKer.

Poker players like to talk about "variance"; let's just say that my table was approaching Infinite Improbability levels of variance.  In the few hours I played, I saw Yaks flop top set against Kings (with all the money getting in on the flop), only for running Kings to hit, with a quads bonus to boot.  On at least four occasions, a turn or river "joker" hit, giving one player a flush and another player a full house.  Flopped straights and flushes were so common, it became a running joke about who flopped the nuts.  There were two flopped set over set situations, several flopped flush over flush hands, as well as three monochrome boards for split pots.  On my first two straddles (to $10), the table uber-nit picks up pocket Yaks, and each time runs them right into pocket Kings, losing both hands, his stack, his rebuy, and likely his mind.  Pure insanity.

Have you ever heard of getting hit by the deck?   The exact opposite happened to me—let's call it getting hit by a horseshoe.  My profit disappeared when twice in three hands (my BB and button), I play A5s, flop dos pairs, and find I am drawing thin versus a set of 3s and flopped top two (AJ).  Rebuy!  A couple of orbits later, I had built up my stack to just over $300, when I straddle and raise with AhJh, after there were seven (!) limpers.  Suddenly there is a raise, an all-in, and I can see the initial raiser looking to call/push.  I reluctantly fold, only to find out the two players are holding ... AA and JJ!  Sometimes, I play so good.  As I pat myself on the back for a good fold, the flop comes out all hearts.  Sometimes, I play so bad.

Soon, though, another horseshoe clangs into my skull when I play 8c6c from the BB, making the 6th caller of the $15 preflop raise.  The flop comes out QcJc9c.  Donkey Kong!!  Knowing there will be a bet, I check, and sure enough, there is a bet and a call to me.  I push for ~$175, and suddenly there is a push behind me, the flop bettor pushes, and the flop caller thinks, then calls!!  Holy action, Batman!  I figure I have to be dead, or near dead to the Tc, but am pleased to see:  Jd9d, QhQd, and AcKs.  I am less pleased to see the river, a non-ten club.  Running it on Cardplayer.com, I was 19% preflop, 51% on the flop, 68% on the turn, and 0% on the river.  Perhaps I should make a multicolor graph or something ...

Anyway, I still had an hour to play, so I rebought.  I stole a couple of pots, and had nearly $280 when the other horseshoe dropped.  There were five players in for $15 when I find Ts9s in the cutoff.  I call, and we see a flop of QcJc8s.  Yahtzee!  Original raiser c-bets for $40, gets raised to $100 total, I push, and the raiser snap-calls.  He proudly rolls over AQo (with no club), which makes me a slight favorite.  Running Aces make me a slight underdog.  Standard.  The table murmurs with disbelief and condolences, but in keeping with my new mantra, I laugh and simply say, "Good hand.  Time to hit the road.  Good luck everyone." 

I'll definitely be back to the Horseshoe for more fishing.  But next time, the poker gods owe me some seriously positive variance.  To be blunt, Set owes me a bunch of sets.

Set—Egyptian god of darkness, storms, and chaos.
A powerful member of the poker god pantheon.

(Image from here).

July 09, 2010

KISS-ing at the Meadows ATM

Yesterday, I mediated a lawsuit, and was able to get a good settlement hammered out in what was a difficult dispute.  Since the mediation ran long, I decided to call it a day and headed to the Meadows ATM for a short, impromptu session of 1/2 NLHE.  Thursday afternoons and evenings are generally good for fishing, with the evening tournament and the weekly 5/5 PL mix "big game" bringing in gamblers and bad cash game players; to this day, I'm continually amazed at how poorly some tournament players adapt to the cash game mileu.

I got right into a game (there were two 1/2 NLHE games running, along with a 3/6 LHE, and two tables of the 5/5 PL big game), which had an interesting mix of a couple of aggro regulars, and several passive newbies.  I got off to a good start when one of the aggros went on tilt and decided to stack off to me by semi-bluffing his middle-pair and gutterball draw into my altos dos pairs to the tune of about $275 profit.  I then had to endure the bad kind of Yak—the loud Yakker next to me who couldn't stop chatting with me with a base volume level equivalent to a Metallica concert.  My left ear was seriously aching when I finally busted him, flopping a pair and the nut flush draw and calling his all-in semi-bluff (he had a naked non-nut flush draw).  Sometimes, this game is easy!  But I have a new appreciation for dealers who are forced to sit next to chatty players, and simply grin and bear it.

There was one amusing moment early on, when a nice lady moved to our table.  She had $320 in chips, and the dealer politely told her that she could only bring on $300 because of the table change.  The lady said, "I'm so sorry!  I didn't know that rule.  I've never had this much money before!"  Another of the regular gals commented, "I didn't sleep very well last night" while another of the regulars was walking by; right on cue he said, "Well, you were sleeping like a baby when I left!"  Everyone cracked up; there's just something fun about playing with friendly folks.

I had an incredibly fun and profitable session (up four buy-ins in roughly five hours!).  But I never had any true monsterpotten after that initial near double-up.  Instead, I pretty much went to Value Town, getting paid off time and again by players who are unconcerned with kickers or are overly concerned about being bluffed, resulting in a steady stream of small to medium-sized pots.  I've been running well the past month or so, in part because of some timely good cards, but largely because I have adapted my game fairly well to the KISS concept—Keep It Simple, Stupid.

After several losing sessions a few months back, I decided I was facing far too many tough decisions, and those tough decisions were usually in big pots, which is not a profitable situation.  So, I've made a few adjustments:
  • Bluff and continuation bet less—In many cases, players in the games I play simply aren't going to lay down top pair.  So, I've dialed the two and three barrel bluffs way back.  Also, if there are more than two other players to the flop with me and I miss the flop, I just don't c-bet.  There are so many better places to put that $25-$50 to use, usually in value-betting or stealing an orphan pot.
  • Use more squeeze plays—This play has gotten a lot more lucrative recently, in part because of the trend by many players to limp-reraise with Aces and Kings in early position.  It's usually fairly easy to get a table trained to consider $12 a standard preflop raise, and to get 3-5 callers of a $12 raise.  Then, a healthy raise to $50-$60 usually can steal a nice pot without a flop.  I like to have a good hand the first time I make this move, so I can roll over something like AA-JJ, just to reinforce that I'm doing that trendy limp-reraise move.  Then, every now and again I'm able to make that exact play with literally any two cards.  I've found this to be a much lower risk-higher success rate play than c-betting on the flop, for roughly the same return on investment.
  • Observing the "big pot-big hand" rule—Frankly, this might have been my biggest leak earlier this year.  It's easy to get caught up in an aggro war where second pair might be good enough to win a $300 pot.  But over time, it can be expensive betting and calling light.  So, generally speaking, if it looks like a big pot is brewing, I get the heck out of Dodge unless I have a real hand.  I may let the occasional nice pot slip out of my hands by folding, but this adjustment has been a definite profit saver.
Also, as I've logged more hours recently, I feel my reads are dialed back in, which has helped me with the rare tough decision.  But poker is much easier when I'm not putting myself in the spot of making a lot of tough decisions.  Of course, it doesn't hurt to also run well!

Speaking of running well, I didn't have any crAAKKer hands, but I did have one statistical variance box (SVB) hand.  I was on the button and it limped to me, so I raised to $12 with 88.  I got four callers, and we saw a flop of Q-5-5 rainbow.  Checks to the guy on my right, who bets $15.  Now, the guy in the 10 seat—the big blind this hand—was very tight and had folded to my raise.  But he was also a Chatty Kathy, and couldn't resist talking to his buddy in the 9 seat, even during hands.  As the flop hit, I saw him lean over and whisper to his buddy and shake his head, so I was pretty sure he had folded a 5.  I also didn't put the bettor on a 5, as he was a trappy player.  So I called, figuring he had a pocket pair or a queen, and I might be able to take the pot away on the turn.  But we got one other caller as well, so I figured he likely had a queen, and I would need to catch an 8 or bluff an Ace or King.  The turn came another 5!  Chatty Kathy positively radiated that he had folded the case 5, so I was pretty sure I was up against assorted queens and pocket pairs in my two opponents.  Same guy bet $15 again, and again we both called.  River was an 8!  Donkey Kong!  Same guy bets $15, I raise to $65, both guys call, both guys show 5s full of Queens, both guys mutter in disgust as I torpedo their U-boats.

Like wine, sometimes a hand needs to mature.

February 05, 2010

Bludgeoned by the Deck

Poker players notoriously love to whine about bad beats and losing streaks. There's almost a perverse enjoyment of the misery of losing.

I much prefer having fun at the poker table, like last night's session at the Meadows ATM. IMOP buddies Santa Claus and Mr. Chow were in town for business and talked me into playing a few hours, bless their hearts! When I arrived, the guys were playing in the 2/5 NLHE feeder game—rookie mistake. Thursday night is one of the two big NLHE tourneys, and the post-tourney 1/2 NLHE cash games are usually soft. I was soon seated in a new 1/2 NLHE game that was starting once a tourney table broke. I locked up my favorite seat—the 3 seat— which was easily the best decision I made all night.

The omens were auspicious—several young players I didn't know and a couple of regular tourney players (who suck at cash games) were at the table. Then, dealing for the button I hit the Ace of spades.  Excellent. That's when I proceeded to get bludgeoned by the deck:

  • First hand, playing my rush, I have 92s, flop is A-2-2, and I take down decent pot from A-rag.
  • My first BB, call small raise with 53o. Flop a pair of 3s with gutterball draw, hero call 3 barrels, river puts four diamonds on board, and my 5d is good to snap QQ.  Establish tight image—check.
  • I get AA OTB, raise to $12, get 3 callers.  Flop is Ten-high with two diamonds.  I bet, get called in two spots.  Turn is a black Jack. There is a bet and a raise all-in, but it wasn't much considering pot size. I reluctantly call, only to have initial bettor push all-in!  Aaaiiiiyyyyaaahhh!   I tank, but finally call hoping I have a shot at the sizeable side pot.  River pairs the board (7s), and my opponents roll over ... KTo (no draw), and JdTd!  I rake a monster $750+ pot.  This was my only tough hand of the night.
  • I get AA in the SB, raise, get a couple of callers.  Flop is 7-A-7.  Donkey Kong!  I end up stacking a guy who overplays A-rag.  Thank you, thank you very much.
  • I get Yaks for the first time, raise in the CO, and smooth call after my raise gets repopped.  I flop top set and wind up cracking QQ.
  • I get 44 OTB and wind up cracking and stacking AA when I flop a set.  Hmm, "crackin' and stackin' " has a cool "Ricky Bobby" sound. May have to use that one on IMOP.
  • I get 22 in the BB and stack KK when I flop a set.
  • Hand O' the Night—I stack Uber-Nit for ~$330 when I raise OTB with A6o and he limp-calls UTG.  Flop is 6-A-6.  Donkey Kong!  Uber-Nit checks, I bet, he pushes, I make the hero call.  He shows AK, and wonders why he lost.  Hilarity ensued.
  • On back to back hands, my 32s in the SB turns a wheel, and my 87o OTB flops the nut straight.  Regrettably two rather smallish pots, as everyone was running scared from my SVB run.
  • My buddy Mr. Chow picks the wrong hand to try to bully me when he bluffs off his $250 stack into my ... AA.  Thank you, come again!
Quite a rush, but I think I was blessed by the poker gods for observing the Deuce-Four high holiday.  Ironically, my three 2-4 hands all whiffed, but I think a set of 4s and a set of 2s—each stacking a supposedly "premium" hand—certainly qualifies as a successful holiday run (and it sounds like the Poker Grump ran quite well for the holiday as well).

Not only was it a profitable session, the table was as fun as I've seen outside of Vegas.  Early on I decided to play my "table clown" persona, and it worked to keep the table happy as they kept losing chips to my SVB run.  I even bought three rounds of drinks, making sure to joke that I was buying with someone else's chips.  There were a couple of young guys at the table from out of state, and I spent the night poking fun at them, and they loved it.  There were a ton of funny slams traded around the table, but I don't recall any now.  However, my buddy Santa Claus had the quote of the night.  After one of the female dealers was telling us about a party where the host had served Rocky Mountain Oysters as a poolside snack, Santa pipes up:
It's not a party until you're sucking down some testicles.
And he's supposedly the straight guy ...

I sensed my SVB rush had ended, so I locked up a tidy profit:


In a game where I'm happy to make $300 in a six hour session, I averaged $300 per hour.

Sometimes, I play so good.

POSTSCRIPT:  Santa Claus stayed and played a while longer.  As I was cashing out, he hit quad 5s and doubled though the table yahoo for a $700+ pot.  Later, he flopped the joint with A3s for another monster pot.  Add in $500 in profit from the 2/5 NLHE game, and Santa can pay his elves their unemployment benefits this month.

Although he gacked off a couple of buy-in this session, Mr. Chow was sitting on a nice $2500 score from the 2/5 NLHE game the prior night.  All in all, the IMOP crew made a nice withdrawal from the Meadows ATM.

January 07, 2010

Personal Poker Terms & Phrases

Over the years of playing poker, I've developed a few terms that have stuck with me and my friends when I talk about poker. So, to avoid any failures to communicate, here are a few terms I'll be using in my blog (many more after the jump):

Canoe—A small full house (i.e., a small boat).  Generally something like 5s full of 3s.

Catamaran—A full house made with unpaired hole cards, e.g., 87 in the hole, 8-8-7-x-x on board.  So named because catamarans are boats with twin hulls.

ET—An uber-calling station, incapable of folding bottom pair or better. Origin—"ET phone home!" Usage ex.—"Santa Claus is a gray-haired, Zima-drinking, sorghum-swilling ET."

Fat Stripper hands—Hands that make you limp, and you won't pay $20 to see more or play further. Good examples of Fat Stripper hands are JT, pocket ducks, and 86s.

Hilarity ensues OR #hilarityensues—Not my original phrase, it has been used in pop culture for some time. Its origins are in TV sitcom synopses where some weird circumstances align, and the viewer is promised a rollicking good time which is rarely delivered (e.g., "Bubba accidentally gives moonshine to Baby Jessica before her first day of kindergarten. Hilarity ensues."). I've adopted the phrase as my ironic Twitter hashtag to denote situations where I snap off someone's big hand with something rather improbable, causing the loser to go on tilt and maybe even berate or assault me. Usage ex.--"Just snapped AA with 53s. Flopped the wheel. Dodging chips. #hilarityensues".

#mybad—Another ironic Twitter hashtag, used when I am berated by some player for winning a pot after making what they consider to be a bad play. Me, I'm results-oriented.

Pot Limit Gamboool / PLG — My name for Pot Limit Omaha (PLO). 'Nuff said.

Statistical Variance Box / SVB—The proper term for a player known coloquially as a "luckbox". As far too many poker "experts" have pontificated, there is no such thing as "luck"; rather, mathematically speaking, there is only "statistical variance" (or "variance" for short). "SVB" is an easy to use acronym to throw out at the table, and is also a little more discrete if you want to insult someone but not have them understand what you mean. Usage ex.—"Ironman Barbie is the world's biggest SVB ... and a d-bag."

Spousal Variance—That portion of a poker bankroll that is spent, directly or indirectly, by or for a spouse or significant other in order to play poker (i.e., to get a "spouse pass"). Examples include: spa sessions, shopping sessions, gifts, home renovations, and straight cash payments. Spousal variance also includes the extra cost of a joint Vegas trip vs. a solo trip--better lodging, better meals, etc. Spousal variance is always -EV (when was the last time your spouse gave you money to play poker?).

Yaks—Pocket Jacks. Viewing this hand causes headache, nausea, vomiting (yakking), cold sweats, nervous tremors, night terrors, and occasional syncope, paralysis, and/or nervous breakdown; truly this is the hand designed by Cthulhu himself. The gates of Hades are no longer guarded by Cerberus, the three-headed dog with a mane of live serpents and the tail of a dragon. No, the entrance to Hell is now guarded by two fire-breathing agents of doom—a pair of Yaks. Yak exposure can have a cumulative effect over time; for poker players with numerous past encounters with Yaks, even gazing on Yaks can lead to instantaneous insanity. Usage ex.—"Yaks suck Donkey balls."