A Pirate's Bargain from TI (#WPBT)

Recently, April (a/k/a @thisisnotapril) announced the official dates for the Winter Poker Blogger Tournament (#WPBT). Since I was able to endure both the presence of @realdawnsummers and having @drizztdj suck out from ahead with Kings in my rookie #WPBT appearance, I was excited to sign up for this year's shenanigans. Now, Aria is not only hosting the #WPBT tourney, but has also offered a great poker room rate with no minimum play requirements ($99/$139 weekday/weekend). I love Aria's rooms and poker rooms, so I have already made reservations. But, my internal cheapskate likes to at least check out the competition, so I was intrigued by this generous offer from Treasure Island ... errr, TI:

Wow! A full 40% discount and two buffets?!?!  Sign me up!!

Oh wait. Not so fast, my friends. Apparently Phil Ruffin has me slotted in at least three tax brackets above my pay grade. Here's my official TI room rate for #WPBT weekend:

Yikes! Apparently TI has gone seriously upscale since I last stayed there in March for under $90/night. Guess I'll have to slum it at Aria .... *Sigh*

It's a tough life, but I manage somehow.

Armchair Jurors

Many that live deserve death. Some that die deserve life. Can you give it to them? Do not be too eager to deal out death in judgment. Even the very wise cannot see all ends.

—Gandalf, in "The Fellowship of the Ring" by J.R.R. Tolkien

Much of the nation today was transfixed by the "not guilty" verdict in the Casey Anthony murder trial. Anthony was accused of murdering her two year-old daughter, Caylee, and disposing of her body in the woods. Some rather damning evidence was presented, including photos of Casey shopping and partying during the month when Casey was missing—an absence unreported to authorities, or even friends or family members. Casey was also caught in several significant lies to police (she was found guilty of four misdemeanor counts of making false statements for her more egregious lies). In the court of public opinion, a "guilty" verdict was inevitable, and the only major question was whether the jury would find Casey guilty of a capital offense, leading to a death penalty sentencing trial.

Personally, I was only dimly aware this trial was occurring, and then only because of the occasional Twitter post from someone following the trial. I didn't watch a minute of testimony. I did see the first 30 minutes or so of the defense closing argument because the significant other was running the remote over the weekend. Frankly, I wasn't particularly impressed by Jose Baez' performance, which seemed to hit good points, then bury them with extraneous asides. The reporting I saw online as the jury began deliberations suggested the prosecution had a strong case, but also had some holes to fill; in particular, the lack of evidence of cause and time of death seemed a major hurdle to a capital murder conviction. Still, I expected a "guilty" verdict for murder or manslaughter.

To say the "not guilty" verdict shocked the public is an understatement. Even several hours after the verdict, the Twitter hashtag #caseyanthonyverdict was the top "trending topic", with scores of new posts every few seconds. Tweets were running at least 50-1 in opposition to the verdict. Many posters had some variation on the theme that the jurors were "stupid", "morons", or "idiots" (see here, here, here, here, and here for a sampling pulled from the stream when I arrived home from the office). Racial themes were common, with some posters claiming Anthony was acquitted largely because she was white, with other posters drawing parallels to the O.J. Simpson and Michael Vick cases. Plenty of posters were even more vicious:

jury = stupid redneck hillbillies

@briehopkins

These jurors should be removed from society

@shoriagirl

I want ALL of those 12 unconvinced jurors to hire Casey as a nanny for their children/grandchildren.

@amycapetta (ironically sporting a "NOH8" logo on her profile picture)

Maybe all the jurors threw one of their children's dead body's in the trunk of their cars? #caseyanthonyverdict

@GatTheBully

And in a rare thematic triptych Tweet:

Tomorrow CNN will announce that all the Jurors have Down Syndrome

@NeverUhFlaw

Tomorrow CNN will announce that the Jurors were ALL ON CRACK this morning

@NeverUhFlaw

Tomorrow CNN will announce that the Jurors are all SHEPARDS for the DEVIL

@NeverUhFlaw

Whether one agrees or disagrees with the jury's verdict, the jury deserves public respect, not ridicule. The jury was faced with an incredibly difficult job. Jurors were shut away from their homes, their communities, their families and friends for seven weeks of trial. Jurors were instructed to ignore the maelstrom of press coverage engulfing the trial. Jurors were asked to set aside all emotion and preconceptions while they sat in judgment on a woman accused of murdering her young daughter. Jurors had to sift through conflicting testimony and ambiguous evidence. Most importantly, the jurors were forced to consider whether a fellow citizen should possibly be put to death.

It's easy to sit in the comfort of one's home or office, read snippets of press coverage online or watch a segment of a tabloid "news" show, and say, "Hey, she's a baby killer!" But for the jurors, the decision wasn't some throwaway opinion on a Facebook poll. No, the jurors were faced with one of the weightiest of moral decisions, deciding whether another person should be sent to jail or even executed. The jurors, unlike their public critics, have to live with the consequences of their decision. Quickly, which is morally worse—letting a guilty murderer walk free, or executing (or imprisoning for life) a mother falsely accused of killing her daughter? What if it were your sister or friend sitting in the defendant's chair? How's that bloodlust feel now? [FN1].

Turning trials into public spectacles has a long history in America. In fact, the American press, pundits, and public were armchair quarterbacking every decision by every lawyer, witness, judge, and juror in high-profile cases long before there were even quarterbacks. Maybe Casey Anthony did kill her daughter and the jury made the "wrong" decision; in fact, let's agree that's probably the truth. Nonetheless, even if the jury was wrong, there is absolutely no indication the jurors didn't take their job seriously and do their best to render a verdict they felt was just based on the evidence and the law. [FN2]. Because their vote doesn't matter, armchair jurors find it easy to throw out an opinion on guilt or innocence without hearing all the evidence and arguments, seeing all of the witnesses, and being instructed on the applicable law. It is extremely offensive to see so many people publicly demean the jury's efforts with a dismissive, "How could they be so stupid!" when those critics don't have to face any real life moral consequences if their opinion turns out to have been wrong.

In any system of justice, someone has to serve as the arbiter of criminal guilt or innocence. For better or worse, in America, that role is generally for a jury of common citizens. The alternative—elected or appointed judges—is not inherently superior to the jury system, given that judges are hardly immune from prejudice and bias, and face their own unique set of social and political pressures. It's fair to question the jury's decision on the merits. To question the jury's integrity or intelligence is to question the very foundations of our legal system. Let's give the jurors some respect for doing an important but thankless task

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[FN1]  If you think it's rare for people to be falsely convicted in America, spend some time on the Innocence Project website, then let me know what you think.

[FN2]  In my sixteen year legal career, I've tried over a dozen jury trials (all civil), including one that was selected to be presented while observed by the entire first-year law school class at Drake Law School as a practicum. I've also observed all or portions of numerous other trials, and interviewed jurors post-trial for their impressions of the case. It is my experience that jurors take their role seriously and do their best to render a fair decision.

The Iowa Poker Economy: Little Rounding Error on the Prairie

Recently I took a look at the economics of the Prairie Meadows poker room in Des Moines, Iowa. Based on data reported to the Iowa Racing and Gaming Commission, my estimate was that rake, jackpot drop, and tips for dealers and servers likely took roughly $4 million a year out of the central Iowa poker economy. But what about all Iowa casinos?

Let's take a look at data for all gambling at all Iowa casinos for Fiscal Year 2010 (July 2009-June 2010). [FN1]. First, the one figure that leaps out of the data is that Iowans (and its visitors) love to gamble, to the tune of gambling losses of nearly $1.37 billion last year. Another striking figure is the sheer dominance of slot machine revenues, which accounts for 93% of all Iowa gaming revenue, and 91% of gaming revenue at casinos with poker. [FN2]. As someone who spends most of my casino time in the poker room, with occasional sessions of blackjack or craps, the fact that most other folks actually prefer to gamble in the rows and rows of slots really hadn't registered with me.

(Click on charts and tables for a larger view.)

Still, the table game revenues in Iowa, although dwarfed by the slots, are nonetheless nothing to sneeze at, coming in at nearly $117 million last year. Poker revenues (which are counted with the table game revenues) accounted for a mere $11.5 million last year, a sizable chunk of change that is nothing more than a minor rounding error on the casino balance sheet. And poker players wonder why they are treated as the red-headed stepkids of the gaming world.

Breaking down the table games brings some interesting insights. Hardly surprising is that blackjack is far and away the biggest earner among the table games, while poker actually holds it own, earning roughy half what is earned by the craps tables and assorted carnival games, and more than what is earned by either roulette or pai gow poker.

(Click on charts and tables for a larger view.)

Poker looks a lot less robust, however, when evaluated on a per table basis. Although blackjack also drops in the rankings on a per table basis, pai gow, roulette, and the carnival games more than double up the per table revenues of poker, while craps dominates the field with the highest per table earnings (nearly four times poker's per table earnings). Again, poker is the smallest fish in the already small table games pond.

The per table statistics are interesting to me, because a table game in the pits and a poker table should have roughly similar cost profiles. Each table requires a dealer, cards/dice, and an automatic shuffler (or wheel for roulette). Each table takes up roughly the same floor space, and can serve roughly the same number of players. One pit boss / floor person in the pits or the poker room can supervise roughly the same number of tables. The one exception is craps, which requires three dealers and a boxman per table, and a pit boss overseeing, at most, three to four tables. Still, pit games and poker should be roughly comparable on a per table cost basis. Thus, poker lagging in per table revenues certainly can't endear the game to casino management, who have to maximize casino revenues in every square foot of gaming floor space.

Table games have a few built-in advantages over poker. Most important, table games can be played on an individual basis, while poker games rarely start or continue running with fewer than five players. Also, poker can only offer the house a steady rake, while many table games offer sucker bets with a 5-10% (or better) house edge. Still, poker does bring in revenues that might otherwise escape the casino's greedy paws, and a million extra dollars of revenue can help pay the electric bill. [FN3] In many ways, poker resembles gasoline at a convenience store—a product with a low profit margin that hopefully entices players to come inside and purchase higher profit margin products like soda and groceries.

Looking at the four biggest Iowa poker rooms by revenues—the Horseshoe in Council Bluffs, Prairie Meadows in Des Moines, Riverside near Iowa City, and Diamond Jo in Worth County—these four rooms account for over 75% of Iowa's poker revenues. The Horseshoe pulls from the Omaha market, Prairie Meadows dominates Des Moines and central Iowa, Diamond Jo (Worth) draws heavily from Minnesota (where no-limit poker is prohibited), and Riverside is near Iowa City (home of the University of Iowa). Yet of these four rooms, only the Horseshoe and Prairie Meadows really show a significant revenue stream from poker on an overall basis, and on a per table basis, poker continues to be a bit player in the overall table games portfolio even for these four casinos with a large poker revenue base.

One final interesting set of data can be derived from looking at the overall and per table poker revenues for all Iowa casinos offering poker. The Big Four rooms obviously dominate on a total revenues basis. But, looking at poker revenues on a per table basis, some of the smaller rooms actually are quite competitive. Further, it is clear that Riverside lags significantly on a per table basis given its overall revenues. This is hardly surprising given that Riverside does not use automatic shufflers, forces its dealers to pool tips with other pit dealers, and generally fails to market its large poker room to the Iowa poker community.

(Click on charts and tables for a larger view.)

In an upcoming post, I'll look at the overall costs of the Iowa poker economy.

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[FN1]  Data for fiscal year 2011 will be available in roughly four to five weeks, and I plan to do a year-by-year look at the progression of the Iowa poker economy once that data is released.

[FN2]  Gaming revenue excludes horse and dog racing revenues, which are not included in these reports.

[FN3]  I find it highly unlikely that poker is a "loss leader" as some people claim. Casinos aren't in the business of losing money in any facet of their operations.

Rockin' the Cosmopolitan

During our recent WSOP trip to Vegas, Santa and I stayed at the new Cosmopolitan hotel and casino, located between Bellagio and City Center. I had wandered through the casino during trips in March and April, and had been impressed with the casino design and ambiance. So, when I found a Vegas.com special deal for an average room rate ~$140/night (with most other sites charging over $350/night), I figured what the heck, might as well try it out. So, I ditched the rooms I had booked at TI (~$120/night with the "resort fee") and took a whirl with Cosmopolitan.

It was a great impulse buy. I've stayed at Bellagio, Venetian/Palazzo, Wynn/Encore, and Aria, which all compete for the same high-end customer base (I've stayed in a suite at Caesars Palace, but I keep them a notch below these other properties as Caesars' base rooms are not on the same luxury level as the elite properties). In my view, Cosmopolitan fits comfortably into the elite Vegas resort niche, and offers some unique twists that make it a fun hotel option.

My value package offered either of the base room options; I booked a Terrace Studio room, which was slightly larger and had a walkout terrace (the other option, a City Room, does not have a terrace). When I went to check in, a friendly young man approached me, led me to a check-in counter, and after looking up my reservation, immediately offered to upgrade us to a Terrace One Bedroom room at no charge (and without my even attempting the $20 trick). He also let me choose which side of the hotel we wanted for a view, and a lower or upper floor. I opted for the Bellagio side, and we would up in the east tower (closer to the Strip), on the 59th floor.

As you'll see from the photos below, the view from our terrace was impressive, overlooking the Bellagio fountains, and having great views of Bellagio, Paris, and the Strip running north toward Wynn. The room itself was decorated in a contemporary style, and was every bit as nice and comfortable as comparable rooms at the other elite Strip resorts. The terrace was surprisingly large (over 100 sq. ft.), and would provide a comfortable place for a morning or evening drink when temperatures are lower. The smaller footprint of the casino made for quick access to restaurants and shops, as well as making it a breeze to walk to poker rooms at Aria and Planet Hollywood (making it easy to overlook the resort's regrettable decision against opening a poker room).

What really sets the Cosmopolitan apart from the other elite Strip resorts is its atmosphere. The crowd in the hotel seems younger and less stuffy than at, say, Bellagio or Wynn. The Cosmopolitan's employees likewise seem friendlier and more approachable; every employee I encountered seemed genuinely interested in assisting me, and several made suggestions as to fun things to try at the resort. Just as a couple of examples, I requested fresh towels from housekeeping after a late afternoon shower, and a friendly lady delivered them in less than five minutes, while the two ladies at the Identity players card sign-up desk were absolutely hilarious.

We did check out the pool area so we could collect our bag of freebies offered as part of a summer promotion; our loot included a cloth pool bag, flip flops, straw fedora-esque hat (which will be featured in next year's Ironman of Poker), sunscreen, and waterproof playing cards. In a bad beat, my bag didn't have the cards, preventing the Cosmopolitan from getting a perfect score. But, I can almost overlook that slight given the beautiful pool area, complete with pool tables with craps table designs on their felts. The pool looks like the perfect place to relax and read a book during the day, and transforms into a party area in the evenings, often with live music, DJs, and even movies.

If you're looking for a fun yet luxurious hotel experience in a great Strip location, Cosmopolitan is hard to beat. If you're on a trip with a spouse or significant other who you want to impress, Cosmopolitan definitely delivers on the "wow" factor. As long as its room rates remain competitive with the other elite Vegas resorts, Cosmopolitan has earned itself a spot as one of my regular Vegas hotels.

View from our terrace looking north late afternoon.

(Click on pictures for larger view.)

Day and night views of Bellagio from our terrace.

Rio is visible on the left in the night picture.

Day and night views of Paris from our terrace.

The night picture of Paris is my favorite of the trip.

 

Bellagio fountain show from our terrace.

This might impress a spouse or significant other,

particularly if you throw in cocktails or champagne.

Great views from the elevated pool area.

Apparently they can't keep out the riffraff.

Yo Eleven! Corner pocket!

Crazy Vegas Poker Players

Last weekend, I journeyed to Poker Mecca with good buddy Santa Claus. Santa was knocking an item off his before-40 bucket list: Play in the World Series of Poker. I was using Santa's plans as a cover for a spouse-free Vegas poker trip (fair's fair, since the sig other didn't invite me to the Vegas bachelorette party he attended in early June).  As usual, we ran into a fun cast of characters.

Santa smuggled Templeton Rye for our brief

layover at the Denver airport. Classy!

Santa in action, at Aria (top) & Planet Hollywood (bottom).

Met two new friends, Jason (left) (a/k/a @jasonsimon) and

Matt (a/k/a @LOLfolding) at Aria. Matt's "buddy" @weizel 

put a bounty on Matt as he played in a cash game with us

at Aria, if we felted him with "the Crabbler" (King-Trey).

The infamous "Belgian Chef" from IMOP-VI

returned to Planet Hollywood to donk off

another couple thousand dollars in maniac style.

This young lady joined my NLHE table at Planet Hollywood,

and promptly had every other guy at the table distracted.

Being gay is an important poker strategy!

The nice lady later jumped into the PLG game,

confirming my read that she is a solid player.

Her boyfriend (right, also a nice fellow) had 

been playing NLHE, and after his game broke, 

had come over to suggest "going back to the room".

Like any good poker player on a solid run, 

she instead asked her boyfriend to join the game.

After he dropped three buy-ins, there was this fun exchange:

Dealer:  "Are you coming back in?"

Guy:  "No, I've dumped enough money into this game."

Me:  "I'd disagree."

These two guys were part of a crew of six Canadians

all wearing identical "Cat Got Your Tongue?" t-shirts.

The one at my table was a good guy, and it sounded

like they were on their own Canadian IMOP.

International hilarity ensues!

Managed to sneak in a session of PLG at Venetian

with buddy and poker industry insider Katkin.

I hit nut vs. second nut against him twice to send

him home early, but it was still good to see him.

(I'm keeping his cash, thanks!)

Look who pulled himself off his sick bed to

give us a ride to the airport. Poker Grump!

(I think we got long-hauled.)

The legendary Pediatric Unabomber, missing

in action since IMOP-I, was spotted at Aria.